The Guardians have reached the point where the formula is pretty plain: ride Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, or risk watching their season slip away.
With the American League Championship Series tied at two games apiece after the Rays’ 7-3 win on Saturday night, Cleveland’s margin for error is gone. Game 5 is Sunday at Progressive Field, and after that the series heads back to Tropicana Field for Game 6 on Monday and, if needed, Game 7 on Tuesday.
That’s why Sunday feels so heavy for the Guardians. A loss would send them into back-to-back road elimination games against a Rays team that won 98 games in the regular season.
A win would put Cleveland one victory from the World Series with two shots to finish it.
On 92.3 The Fan, Jonathan Peterlin put the situation bluntly.
"Between Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, you have to go out there and do the job between the next couple games. This one becomes a must-win, definitely."
Messick gets the first crack at it. The rookie left-hander has handled big moments all season, earning an All-Star nod and finishing the regular season with a 2.56 ERA and 193 strikeouts, the second most by a rookie in franchise history.
Tampa Bay has already seen how difficult he can be. Across three starts against the Rays this season, he allowed just two earned runs in 18 1/3 innings.
In Game 2 on Tuesday, he gave up three runs over five innings, though none were earned after a fourth-inning error.
The matchup is no easier on the other side. Rays ace Drew Rasmussen has been sharp this postseason, going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and taking a no-hit bid into the eighth inning against the Yankees in the division series. When he faced Cleveland in Game 1 of this series, he gave up two runs over six innings before the Guardians eventually broke through against Tampa Bay’s bullpen.
If the game does come down to the late innings, Cleveland’s relief group should be ready. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski all sat out Game 4, leaving Stephen Vogt with his most trusted arms fresh for Sunday. Smith has allowed only one earned run in nine postseason innings, and if Messick can pass along a lead, the Guardians’ bullpen looks built to guard it.
Williams looms next, and he has been even better in October. He enters at 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA this postseason and struck out nine over five innings in Cleveland’s Game 3 victory.
The home-road split from the regular season also points to Progressive Field helping his case later in the series: a 2.84 ERA at home compared with 5.05 on the road. His next outing would likely come at Tropicana Field.
Cleveland’s offense will need to give this plan some support after scoring only three runs on Saturday. But with the series this close, the Guardians know where the weight sits now - on two arms, and maybe on Sunday, almost entirely on one.
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Guardians Loss May Have Quietly Set Up The Rest Of This Series
The Guardians did enough early to make Game 4 feel like a chance to even the ALCS, but the game slipped away once the Rays pushed across runs in the sixth and seventh innings. Even so, the loss may not have been as damaging as it first looked, because Cleveland managed to avoid leaning too heavily on the bullpen and preserve its most important relief arms for the rest of the series.
That matters with the matchup still hanging in the balance, especially after Tampa Bay also went through several pitchers in the same game. Both clubs now have some moving pieces to sort through on the mound, and the way each staff is managed over the next few days could end up shaping the rest of the series just as much as the score from Game 4. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Face A Real October Decision On Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana has given the Guardians enough at the plate to keep his name in the lineup conversation, but the glove has made things a little less straightforward as October has worn on. The rookie second baseman has flashed real offensive value, yet his seven errors at the position have become hard to ignore, and the latest reminder came in a recent game against the Rays.
Stephen Vogt has already shown he is willing to make a late-game switch at second, turning to Angel Genao in postseason situations to tighten things up defensively. So the question hanging over Cleveland is a familiar one for any contender with a young infielder in the spotlight: how much offense can they afford to keep in the lineup if the defense keeps giving away outs? [Read more 🡒]
Travis Bazzana May Have Just Changed Cleveland's ALCS Outlook
Travis Bazzana delivered his best postseason game yet in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series, reaching base three times against the Tampa Bay Rays and giving Cleveland a jolt when it needed one. The rookie second baseman finished with a home run, a walk, a run scored and an RBI, and his first career playoff homer helped spark a rally even in a loss.
For a Guardians lineup that has been searching for steady production in a tight series, Bazzana's timing mattered almost as much as the box score. Cleveland did not finish the job, but the performance helped level the matchup at two games apiece and hinted at a player who may be starting to settle into the postseason stage at exactly the right time. [Read more 🡒]