The NBA’s offseason moratorium ends today, July 6, and that means free-agent deals can finally be put on paper. For the Cavaliers, though, the real story is still stuck in the waiting room.
LeBron James can start signing a new contract now, but nobody around the league is expecting a quick answer. Rich Paul has already warned teams to be patient, and James has kept everyone guessing since leaving the Los Angeles Lakers on June 30 as an unrestricted free agent. Cleveland has also been quiet, and that silence has only fueled the idea that the front office is leaving the door open for a return.
Not everyone is buying the dream.
Yahoo! Sports senior NBA analyst Kevin O’Connor used his Monday show to pour some cold water on the idea of James heading back to Cleveland, even while acknowledging why the storyline has so much pull. On social media, he put it even more bluntly: “I don't get the appeal of Cleveland for LeBron other than the fact it's home.
James, Mitchell and Harden is an awful fit. Not enough D, not enough off-ball movement.
Not enough spacing with Allen and Mobley either. A flawed bench.
Their coach just blundered big-time. I just…”
O’Connor’s argument wasn’t that James wouldn’t make the Cavaliers better. Of course he would. His point was that the roster, as it stands, doesn’t line up cleanly with what a 41-year-old James would need if he’s chasing a fifth championship.
He started with the fit in the backcourt, where James Harden becomes a major variable if he re-signs. Harden isn’t the kind of player who naturally works off the ball, which creates obvious overlap concerns.
O’Connor also questioned how much Donovan Mitchell gives Cleveland as a passer, and he pointed to the frontcourt pairing of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen as another issue because of the spacing it creates. His view was simple: the Cavs have talent, but the roster still needs work.
“This Cleveland roster…got through a Raptors team that’s young with a crappy offense that took seven games,” said O’Connor. “It took seven games to get through the Pistons, a poorly constructed roster built only for the regular season, not for the playoffs, and then they just completely blasted by New York with a historic blown Game 1 lead.”
He added, “I just think with Mitchell and Harden,” said O’Connor. “Harden if he returns … doesn’t move off ball.
… How’s that gonna look with LeBron? … Mitchell…not much of a passer, he’s not.”
Cleveland’s playoff exit is part of why the skepticism has taken hold. The Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference finals and were swept by the New York Knicks, with their forwards repeatedly beaten and neither Mitchell nor Harden delivering when the pressure rose. Kenny Atkinson also struggled at times as a game manager in that series.
That’s the tension at the center of the whole conversation. The storybook angle is irresistible: James coming home, finishing where it all started, and maybe writing one last chapter in Northeast Ohio.
But the basketball questions haven’t gone away. James would be an upgrade over the departed Dean Wade on the wing, yet the same issues that haunted Cleveland in May would still be waiting for him next spring.
Then there’s the money, and that part is just as complicated.
In CBS Sports’ leaguewide breakdown of teams that can pay James, Sam Quinn placed Cleveland with the minimum-only group, which means an offer around $3.9 million as things stand. Quinn noted the Cavaliers technically have close to $27 million in first-apron space, but that number doesn’t really matter until Harden’s next contract is settled.
Harden turned down his $42.3 million player option and is working on a new multiyear deal, and the shape of that agreement will determine whether Cleveland stays in minimum territory or regains real spending power. That’s why the Cavaliers have been exploring trades involving Max Strus and Dennis Schröder, moves that are widely seen as an effort to create a mid-level exception instead of settling for the veteran minimum. The full non-taxpayer mid-level exception sits at around $15 million, while the taxpayer version is around $6.1 million.
For a player who just made $48.7 million, the exact number isn’t really the point. It’s about what kind of roster Cleveland can build around him, and whether the team can offer enough to matter.
The race, though, is still wide open.
The Golden State Warriors have long been viewed as a possible threat because of James’ connections with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, but they reportedly don’t believe they’re at the top of his list. That could push them toward a more aggressive win-now move.
The Miami Heat are in the mix too, and Quinn projected they could offer somewhere in the $11 million to $12 million range. That’s a much stronger number than Cleveland’s minimum path, and it highlights the Cavaliers’ problem: the emotional case is strong, but the fit and the finances are not as clean.
So on signing day, Cleveland is left with the same reality it’s been staring at for days. The relationships are real.
The homecoming makes sense on paper. The door is open.
But the two questions O’Connor keeps circling are the ones that matter most: does the roster actually fit, and can Cleveland pay enough to make the pitch stick? Until Harden signs and the rest of the market starts moving, the wait goes on.
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