When the Cleveland Cavaliers pulled the trigger on a deal to send Isaac Okoro packing in exchange for Lonzo Ball, it was a calculated swing - a move aimed at bolstering their postseason rotation with a veteran presence who could stabilize the offense and bring some defensive teeth off the bench. On paper, it made sense.
Okoro, while a steady and improving player over five seasons in Cleveland, had never quite found his footing in the playoffs. Too often, he became an offensive ghost - left unguarded in key moments, unable to punish defenses for ignoring him.
The Cavaliers had seen enough of that script. Enter Lonzo Ball - a player whose name still carries weight around the league thanks to his high-IQ play, disruptive defense, and ability to orchestrate an offense.
The vision was clear: plug Ball into a bench unit that needed a floor general and a defensive tone-setter. Think Alex Caruso with a bit more playmaking juice.
That was the hope, at least.
But nearly halfway through the 2025-26 season, that vision has hit some serious turbulence.
To put it bluntly, Lonzo Ball’s offensive production has been rough - historically rough. His effective field goal percentage is sitting at 41.4%, which lands him in the fourth percentile league-wide.
That’s not just a cold stretch. That’s a full-on freeze.
Drill down into the numbers, and it gets even more concerning. Around the rim, Ball is finishing just 56% of his attempts - 12th percentile.
From the midrange? 33% - 27th percentile.
And beyond the arc, where he's taking the bulk of his shots, he’s converting just 27% - bottom 10th percentile. These aren’t just bad numbers; they’re numbers that make you double-check to see if they’re typos.
And it’s not just the percentages. It’s the shot profile that’s raising eyebrows.
A staggering 80% of Ball’s shots are coming from beyond the arc. That’s a perimeter-heavy diet usually reserved for catch-and-shoot specialists like Duncan Robinson or Sam Merrill - not for a point guard who was brought in to create and steady the offense.
Only 14% of his attempts are coming at the rim, which is a red flag considering his size, athleticism, and past ability to get downhill.
Right now, Ball isn’t putting pressure on defenses - he’s relieving it. Defenders are sagging off, daring him to shoot, and more often than not, they’re getting rewarded for that gamble. It’s eerily reminiscent of the Okoro experience - a player who, despite his defensive value, couldn’t command attention on offense and ultimately became a liability in playoff settings.
The eye test backs it all up. Ball too often looks hesitant with the ball in his hands.
He’s either firing up a contested shot or swinging the ball along without much purpose. When he does get clean looks, he’s passing them up.
And when he’s on the floor without high-usage guards like Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell to draw defensive attention, his limitations become glaring.
That’s the real issue here. Ball’s playmaking and vision - still elite in flashes - don’t matter much when defenders don’t respect his ability to score.
Without a threat to collapse the defense, his passing lanes shrink, and his impact fades. He needs gravity around him to function, and when he’s sharing the floor with guys like Craig Porter Jr., Jaylon Tyson, or Nae’Qwan Tomlin, the offense grinds to a halt.
This wasn’t the version of Lonzo Ball the Cavaliers thought they were getting. They knew he wasn’t going to be a 20-point scorer, but they expected a smart, steady hand who could keep the offense humming and knock down enough shots to stay on the floor in high-leverage moments. Right now, he’s not delivering on that promise.
And while no one in Cleveland is publicly saying they regret the trade, the early returns aren’t doing much to quiet the doubts. Ball still brings elite defensive instincts and court vision, but if he can’t find a way to become even a modest offensive threat, his minutes will be tough to justify - especially when the playoffs roll around and every possession is magnified.
The Cavaliers are hoping that as the roster gets healthier and rotations stabilize, Ball can find a rhythm. They’re banking on his basketball IQ and experience to eventually shine through. But if his shot selection doesn’t change - and if the percentages don’t follow - this trade could end up less like a savvy postseason upgrade and more like a lateral move that didn’t solve the problem it was meant to fix.
Cleveland didn’t need Lonzo Ball to be a star. They just needed him to be better than what they had. So far, that bar’s still waiting to be cleared.