The Eastern Conference looks wide open enough this season that even the familiar contenders come with a long list of asterisks.
That’s the picture John Hollinger of The Athletic paints in his latest projections, and it starts with Cleveland. He has the Cavaliers tied for second at 51-31, a total that would keep them right in the mix near the top of the East. For a team that has spent years trying to plant itself among the conference’s best, that part is encouraging.
What comes after the regular season is where the questions pile up.
Hollinger’s read on the Cavs is simple: they have the talent to win plenty of nights, but that doesn’t automatically solve the bigger playoff problem. Cleveland reached the Eastern Conference finals last season before being overwhelmed by New York, and the year before that Indiana knocked them out in the second round. Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen give the roster plenty of punch, but Hollinger is still asking whether that group can beat the very best four times in one series.
He believes the most obvious swing factor could be Peyton Watson, who arrived from Denver in a sign-and-trade. Watson gives Cleveland the kind of size, athleticism and defensive versatility it has been looking for on the wing. There’s also optimism around Jaylon Tyson, Nae’Qwan Tomlin and rookie Meleek Thomas.
Even so, Hollinger points to the front office’s limited financial flexibility and lack of draft assets as hurdles to making more upgrades. He also says Kenny Atkinson would not be off the hook if the Cavs stumble. So while 51 wins would be a strong result, it still may not satisfy a team that has its sights set beyond the regular season.
Detroit is the other eye-catching name at the top of Hollinger’s board. He projects the Pistons to finish first in the East at 52-30, one game ahead of Cleveland and Toronto. That’s a bold call, but it comes with some logic behind it.
The Pistons won 60 games last season and have kept leaning into a young core built around Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson. They also addressed one of last season’s weak spots by adding shooting with Isaiah Joe and bringing back Kevin Huerter. The bigger question is whether Detroit has enough scoring to survive the playoffs, but Hollinger likes the direction and the upside.
Toronto is another team he views as very much in the hunt. The Raptors are projected to finish tied with Cleveland at 51-31 after reuniting with Kawhi Leonard and pairing him with Scottie Barnes and a growing group of young defenders. Hollinger sees a team that could be a nightmare to score on, though Leonard’s durability remains the obvious concern.
Boston sits fourth at 50-32, even after dealing Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia. Jayson Tatum is back, Paul George is on the roster, and Hollinger expects the Celtics to remain strong over the course of the regular season. Whether that translates into another title chase is another matter.
The Knicks land fifth at 48-34, which is a little surprising on paper for the defending champions. But Hollinger still views New York as maybe the most dangerous playoff team in the conference.
Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and the rest of the core have already shown they can handle the biggest moments, and their style looks tailor-made for the postseason. The regular season could be trickier, though, with an aging roster, limited frontcourt depth and some contract issues looming.
Orlando comes in sixth at 47-35, and Hollinger isn’t sold that Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have developed the offensive chemistry needed to push the Magic past the first round. Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs add to a group the team has invested in heavily, but the franchise may be nearing the point where “competitive” is no longer enough.
The 76ers are probably the wildest team in the projection. Hollinger has them seventh at 46-36, despite a roster that now includes LeBron James and Jaylen Brown alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
That is a massive collection of star power, but Hollinger raises the same concerns many observers would: Embiid’s health, the depth behind the big names and how all that offense will fit together. Even so, he suggests Philadelphia could look more dangerous in the playoffs than it does in the standings.
Atlanta rounds out the top eight at 41-41. The Hawks have improved defensively with Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins, and Jalen Johnson remains a central piece of the future. Still, Hollinger views them as another team that likely needs more help before entering true contender status.
The most striking part of all this is how tight the race is projected to be. Hollinger says just six wins separate the East’s top seven teams, which means the difference between home-court advantage and the Play-In Tournament could be razor thin.
That leaves Cleveland in an awkward but familiar spot: respected, talented and firmly in the mix, but still carrying the burden of proving it can turn a good regular season into something more.
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