The Cleveland Cavaliers will open the season without Nae’Qwan Tomlin, and the timing couldn’t be worse for a player trying to carve out a real role.
Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com reported that Tomlin is dealing with a lower back stress reaction, and the current outlook is for him to be sidelined at least 3-4 weeks. That puts his return somewhere between November 10-17 as of now, though the timeline is only an initial estimate and he could miss more time.
For Tomlin, the injury cuts straight into a huge opportunity. He entered the offseason with a legitimate chance to win minutes as Cleveland’s primary backup power forward, a spot that opened up after Dean Wade’s departure. Instead of fighting for the job in camp and the first stretch of the season, he’ll be watching from the sideline.
That’s especially disappointing after a promising run in Summer League. Tomlin averaged 18.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.5 blocks, while hitting about 62.5% of his shots overall and 42.9% from 3-point range, going 3-for-7 from deep. He looked more comfortable in a role that asked him to move without the ball, cut hard, roll to the rim, and give ballhandlers and drivers a catch-and-shoot option.
That last part may be the most important piece of his evaluation. Tomlin’s path to steady NBA minutes depends on whether he can become a reliable enough shooter to matter from outside.
Through his first two professional seasons, he has made just 23.2% of his three-point attempts, connecting on 29 of 125. Most of those looks have come as a catch-and-shoot option, where he has gone 27-for-112.
There’s another issue, too: defenses haven’t exactly treated him like a major perimeter threat. Most of his long-range attempts have come with space, yet he has still hit only 25.0% of those “wide-open” looks, making 22 of 88. If he can’t punish teams for backing off, his route to becoming a regular in the rotation gets a lot steeper.
And the competition is already heating up. Cleveland’s addition of Mario Hezonja, along with his preseason showing, has only complicated Tomlin’s outlook. Hezonja was already starting to look like the front-runner for the backup power forward spot, and this injury gives him even more runway to settle in.
For Tomlin, the math is simple. By the time he’s healthy, he may already be trying to catch up in a rotation that’s moving on without him.
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