The Cavaliers head into Wednesday night with a quick chance to answer back, but the setup is hardly forgiving. Cleveland returns to Paycom Center to face the Thunder just two days after Monday’s meeting, with tipoff set for 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
That first matchup went Oklahoma City’s way in a tight one, as the Thunder held off Cleveland 117-112 behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 43 points, 8 assists, and 3 rebounds. Now the Cavaliers are trying to avoid getting swept in the season series by one of the league’s top teams.
Injury-wise, both sides are dealing with plenty. Peyton Watson (hamstring) and Jaylon Tyson (ankle) sat out Monday for Cleveland, though neither status for Wednesday has been made official. Oklahoma City’s list is longer: Jalen Williams (leg), Chet Holmgren (patellar tendon), Cason Wallace (shoulder), Alex Caruso (ankle), Nikola Topic (back), and Thomas Sorber (knee) are all out.
Against that backdrop, Dimers released its latest Cavaliers-Thunder prediction after running 10,000 simulations of the game and comparing the results with updated sportsbook odds.
The model gives Oklahoma City the edge. Dimers has the Thunder at 59.5% to win, while Cleveland sits at 40.5%. It also projects the Cavaliers at +2.5 to cover with a 49.2% chance, and the over/under of 228.5 points leans 50.69% toward the under.
The predicted final score comes out to Thunder 117, Cavaliers 115.
On the player-prop side, Donovan Mitchell leads Cleveland’s projection with 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. For Oklahoma City, Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 29 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists.
The projected box score also includes J. Harden with 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists; E.
Mobley with 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists; P. Watson with 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists; and J.
Allen with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 1 assist for Cleveland.
For the Thunder, J. McCain is projected for 17 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists; A.
Mitchell for 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists; A. Caruso for 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists; and I.
Hartenstein for 10 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists.
Cleveland enters at 4-3, looking to stay above .500, while Oklahoma City is 5-2. The teams already met Monday, and last season the Cavs lost both games against the Thunder.
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Jarrett Allen has been one of the steadier reasons the Cavaliers have stayed on track since he arrived in Cleveland during the 2020-21 season, and this year he has only strengthened that case. His scoring and rebounding have ticked up, his shot selection has looked sharper, and even his willingness to step outside and test a three-point shot has added a new layer to what he brings every night.
The bigger point for Cleveland is how closely Allens production keeps lining up with winning. He has remained a defensive anchor, and his early-season block numbers have underscored just how much ground he can cover around the rim. For a team that once had to wonder whether the move for him would age well, Allen keeps making those old trade calls look more and more lopsided. [Read more 🡒]
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Meleek Thomas was part of that equation in a big way, making his first NBA start and giving Cleveland a useful burst of energy and production in extended minutes. Even with that kind of contribution, the final stretch still came down to execution and shot-making, and the Cavaliers were left with a loss that stung because they were right there until the end. [Read more 🡒]
Cleveland Cant Afford To Lose This Rare Power Bat
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Adell hit .244 with a .740 OPS in 48 regular-season games, and Plutos point was less about the stat line than the fit. With the Guardians facing budget limits and another round of labor uncertainty ahead, he argued the front office should be willing to absorb the arbitration cost if it means keeping a hitter who brings a skill set the roster does not have much of, especially when compared with other pending decisions such as free agent Foster Griffin. [Read more 🡒]