The Cavaliers still have plenty to like in ESPN’s eyes, but the shine has dulled a bit.
ESPN slotted Cleveland 10th in its annual NBA Future Power Rankings on Wednesday, a drop from fourth a year ago. The Cavaliers finished with an overall score of 60, the same mark as Toronto, which checked in just behind them at No. 11.
The rankings are built to forecast each team’s outlook over the next three seasons, stretching from 2026-27 through 2028-29. Ben Golliver, Zach Kram, Bobby Marks and Dean Oliver graded every franchise across five categories, with the roster carrying the most weight at 60% of the formula. Management, draft assets and money each count for 11.67%, while market makes up the final 5%.
Cleveland’s strongest area was the one that matters most: the players. The Cavaliers earned a 75 there, good for fourth in the league behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks.
But the rest of the profile was less flattering. Cleveland finished 11th in management with a 65, 23rd in both money and market with scores of 33 and 41, and 28th in draft assets with a 14, ahead of only the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Kram said the Cavaliers, on paper, can put a starting five of James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the floor and still look like a team with real title equity. He also pointed to the price of getting Harden and Watson, noting that Cleveland sacrificed future flexibility and took hits in several other categories because of it.
That tradeoff came into focus over the summer when Cleveland built around that core. Watson arrived from the Denver Nuggets in a five-team sign-and-trade and then landed a four-year, $88 million contract with a player option and trade kicker. The move sent Cleveland’s unprotected 2031 first-round pick to Denver, while Max Strus went to the LA Clippers.
Marks noted that Mitchell, Harden, Watson, Mobley and Allen are all locked in for at least the next three seasons. He also praised Cavaliers president of basketball operations Koby Altman for remaking the roster despite financial constraints and a thin stockpile of tradable picks.
Still, he raised the obvious question: what happens if this version of the team doesn’t take off? After the Watson deal, Cleveland no longer has a tradable first-round pick.
The Cavaliers have been hovering near the top of these projections for a while. In ESPN’s 2023 edition, they were 11th overall, with Mitchell, Mobley and Allen already in place and a seventh-place ranking in player talent. Oliver noted that only two teams have posted a better record since then, and he said the biggest change to Cleveland’s core is Harden stepping in for Darius Garland, who went to the Clippers.
Oliver also included Cleveland among the five teams that have finished in the top 10 in both this year’s rankings and last year’s, alongside Oklahoma City, Houston, San Antonio and New York. His point was straightforward: title teams usually come from that tier.
Golliver’s long-view take was more skeptical. His bold prediction for the 2027-29 window was that the summer spending would "age like cheap wine." He wrote that owner Dan Gilbert handed out major contracts to Mitchell, Harden and Watson, and that Cleveland should be part of the title discussion in 2027 and 2028 before Mitchell’s salary climbs and Harden gets closer to his 40th birthday.
Harden turned 37 on Aug. 26.
Cleveland’s recent on-court results still help explain why ESPN likes the team’s immediate future. Last season, the Cavaliers went 52-30, knocked out Toronto in the first round and the Detroit Pistons in the second, and reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 1992 without LeBron James on the roster. The Knicks then swept Cleveland in the conference finals and went on to beat San Antonio for the 2026 championship.
Watson’s individual production also stood out in Denver before the move. In 54 games last season, he averaged 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Before a hamstring strain sidelined him in early February, he was shooting 49.1% from the field and 41.1% from 3.
The Cavaliers open the season Oct. 22 against the 76ers.
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