Sunday’s Week 5 slate gives bettors 13 games to hunt for plus-money touchdown props, and two names stand out above the rest: Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride and Cleveland Browns rookie wide receiver KC Concepcion.
The anytime touchdown market keeps it simple. If the player scores, you cash.
If he doesn’t, you don’t. That’s the appeal, and through the first month of the season this column has already hit with Ja’Marr Chase in Week 2, Kenyon Sadiq in Week 3, Garrett Wilson in Week 3 and Sam LaPorta in Week 4.
LaPorta’s Week 4 score against the Carolina Panthers cashed Peter Dewey’s pick on Sunday night.
This week, the focus shifts to defenses that have been leaking production. Detroit is the first stop on the board, and McBride looks like the most reliable route to the end zone.
McBride is one of the most dangerous weapons in football, and it’s a surprise to see him priced at plus money against the Lions. Detroit has been a mess against the pass, giving up the most passing yards in the league while sitting 31st in EPA/Play, 29th in EPA/Pass and 28th in success rate. Bryce Young picked that defense apart in Week 4, and there’s reason to believe Jacoby Brissett can have success through the air Sunday as well.
That matters because McBride is getting fed. He has seen at least 10 targets in each of Arizona’s first four games, and his season line sits at 33 catches for 242 yards and two touchdowns. The volume is the real draw here, especially with Detroit struggling so badly to cover tight ends.
Through four weeks, the Lions have allowed the most receptions to the position with 37, the second-most receiving yards at 407 and the most touchdowns with six. Add in the absences of safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, and this secondary has already been picked apart by Tyler Shough, Young, Josh Allen and Geno Smith.
Arizona could find itself chasing points against an elite Lions offense, which only adds to McBride’s appeal. If the Cardinals are forced to throw, Brissett should keep looking toward McBride and Michael Wilson, who is +170 to score. McBride is the safer play, but both Cardinals pass catchers deserve a long look.
The other pick lands in New York, where Concepcion is looking for his first NFL touchdown. The Browns rookie hasn’t scored yet, but he’s already leading Cleveland pass catchers with 28 targets, five more than any other Browns receiver or tight end.
Now he gets a Jets defense that ranks 23rd in opponent dropback EPA and 29th in opponent dropback success rate. That setup makes him a strong candidate to break through for the first time in his career.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Deshaun Watson Just Gave The Browns Another Unwanted Distraction
The Browns were handed another bit of off-field clutter this week when the NFL fined Deshaun Watson and Quinshon Judkins for an illegal celebration during the game against the Steelers. The gesture, which involved pretending to smoke, drew unsportsmanlike-conduct penalties and added one more item to a season already full of noise around Cleveland.
Watson was fined $14,926 and Judkins $14,397, with the leagues decision coming before the Browns Week 5 matchup against the Jets. It is the kind of small but avoidable distraction Cleveland would rather do without, especially when every week seems to bring a fresh reminder that discipline issues can quickly become part of the larger conversation around this team. [Read more 🡒]
Todd Monken Just Hit A Nerve With Browns Fans Over Minkah Fitzpatrick
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Fitzpatrick was not ejected, though he is expected to be fined for the illegal contact, and that only sharpened the reaction around Monkens defense of him. For Cleveland supporters, the issue is not just the hit itself but the memory attached to the player delivering it, which made the coachs choice of words feel especially touchy in the aftermath. In a rivalry that already carries enough baggage, this was a reminder that even a routine postgame explanation can turn into its own storyline. [Read more 🡒]
Ben Roethlisberger Just Handed Browns Fans The Perfect Reminder
Ben Roethlisberger found a way to stir the pot again, even if it was in jest. On a recent podcast, the former Steelers quarterback made a joking comment that suggested he had never lost to the Browns, a line that immediately invites a fact-check in Cleveland, where the franchise has beaten Pittsburgh multiple times and owns a more recent playoff win than its old rival.
For Browns fans, the bigger takeaway might be the reminder that Pittsburghs long-standing mystique has been chipped away more than once in this matchup. Cleveland has won five straight home games against the Steelers, and Roethlisbergers uncertainty about labeling any team a true contender entering Week 5 only adds to the feeling that the AFC Norths old assumptions no longer hold up the way they used to. [Read more 🡒]