Week 4 opens with an AFC North game that already feels like it matters plenty in the standings: the Steelers and Browns, both 2-1, meeting on Thursday night in Cleveland.
The division is bunched up across the board, with all four AFC North teams sitting at 2-1 in 2026. Pittsburgh comes in as the road favorite after its best offensive performance of the year in a Week 3 win over Cincinnati, when Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes. Even so, the Steelers’ offense still ranks 31st in the NFL in EPA/Play this season.
Cleveland, meanwhile, has found a steadier version of Deshaun Watson over the last two weeks. The Browns have beaten Tampa Bay and Carolina in back-to-back games, and Watson has given them a higher floor than anyone else in that quarterback room. He’s not the same player he was in Houston, but he has delivered enough to keep Cleveland in games and help the Browns string together back-to-back outright wins as an underdog.
That sets up a matchup that feels very much up for grabs. These teams have split their last 12 meetings, and the betting market has Pittsburgh laying points despite Cleveland being at home on a short week.
SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan is backing the Browns in his Road to 272 column.
“I may regret saying this, but I'm starting to think the Cleveland Browns are a better team than the betting market expected them to be. Deshaun Watson has been completely serviceable as their starting quarterback to begin the season, ranking 19th in adjusted EPA per play. That's far above Aaron Rodgers, who has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, ranking 31st in that metric.
The Browns and Steelers have extremely similar metrics through the first three weeks. The Browns have a Net Yards per Play of -0.6, whereas the Steelers are right behind them at -0.7.
Despite that, the Browns are getting points on their home field on a short week. That's enough for me to back Cleveland in this spot.”
MacMillan also likes Steelers running back Jaylen Warren to keep rolling. Warren has opened the season with 5.7 yards per carry and 11.0 yards per reception, and he was heavily featured in the Week 3 win over Cincinnati, playing 90.3 percent of Pittsburgh’s snaps. He handled 17 carries for 127 yards and added three catches for 49 yards, finishing with 176 yards from scrimmage.
That kind of explosion may not repeat, but 94.5 total yards still looks reachable. Warren went for 73 and 77 rushing and receiving yards in the first two weeks while splitting time with Rico Dowdle, and with another week as the lead back, he draws a Browns defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in EPA/Rush.
On the Cleveland side, tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has become one of Watson’s most reliable options. He caught two touchdown passes in Week 3, finished with a season-high seven receptions on nine targets, and has 15 targets over his last two games. Fannin has also been the Browns’ most consistent pass catcher this season, playing 84.9 percent of the snaps and seeing 18 targets overall.
Raheim “Rocket” Sanders is another Browns player drawing attention. The third-down back has carved out a bigger role behind Quinshon Judkins, reaching a season-high 42.9 percent snap share in Week 3.
Sanders has had three or more receptions in two games this season, including four catches against Carolina on Sunday. He was targeted five times in that game and has nine targets through three weeks.
Against a tough Pittsburgh pass rush, Sanders could see plenty of dump-offs if Watson is forced to get the ball out quickly. If you want the safer angle, Sanders is -190 to record two or more receptions in this Week 4 matchup.
In Other News...
Browns Passing Game Just Caught A Break Before Steelers Week 4
The Browns passing game got a late-week boost before a division-size matchup with Pittsburgh, and it comes from an opponents roster shuffle rather than anything Cleveland did on its own. Joey Porter Jr. was already ruled out of the upcoming game because of a back injury, but the Steelers then sent the cornerback to Dallas in a deal for a second-round pick and a conditional sixth-rounder, removing one of their more familiar cover men from the AFC North picture altogether.
For Cleveland, the timing matters because Porter would have been a name the Browns would have had to account for twice a year if he had stayed put. Instead, Pittsburghs secondary depth now looks thinner, with Jamel Dean and Asante Samuel Jr. as the primary corners, and that changes the challenge for a Browns passing attack trying to find any edge it can get in Week 4. [Read more 🡒]
Quinshon Judkins Has A Browns Problem Bigger Than The Blocking
Quinshon Judkins has run into a problem in Cleveland that goes beyond what the offensive line is giving him. Through three games, the Browns back is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry with no touchdowns, a steep drop from the efficiency he showed as a rookie. Even with fewer stacked boxes in front of him, his runs have been among the leagues least effective, with Next Gen Stats putting him sixth from the bottom among NFL backs.
The Browns run-block win rate has not helped, but the film and the numbers point to a back who has been too tentative and has left too much yardage on the field. Now comes a tough test against Pittsburgh, one of the leagues top-graded run defenses, which makes this as much about Judkins finding decisiveness as it is about Cleveland creating better lanes. If the ground game is going to become a real threat, the Browns need more than cleaner blocking - they need Judkins to turn the openings he does get into something more. [Read more 🡒]
Browns Rookies Are Giving Deshaun Watson A Reason For Real Optimism
Through the first two weeks of the 2026 season, Deshaun Watson has had one of the clearer reasons for optimism in a Browns offense still trying to find its footing. Rookie wide receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion have already shown an early connection with Watson, and Boston has especially stood out with nine catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns as Cleveland starts to see what its young pass-catchers can bring to the mix.
Watson pointed to the learning curve the rookies are facing as they adjust to NFL defenses, but he also sounded encouraged by how quickly the chemistry is forming. For a Browns team getting ready for Thursday Night Football against the Steelers on Oct. 1, the rookie development matters because it may end up giving Watson a more reliable group to lean on as the season moves deeper into October. [Read more 🡒]