The AFC North gets the Thursday night stage in Week 4, and the betting market is asking a familiar question: are the Cleveland Browns being shorted at home against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that’s still trying to prove its Week 3 breakthrough was real?
Both teams enter at 2-1, but they’ve gotten there in different ways. Pittsburgh just handled the Cincinnati Bengals, and Aaron Rodgers finally delivered his best passing performance of the season with three touchdowns. Cleveland, meanwhile, has stacked back-to-back wins as an underdog, taking down Tampa Bay and Carolina behind two steady outings from Deshaun Watson.
That’s why this line feels a little uneasy. The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites and have held there, though the juice has leaned heavily toward Pittsburgh (-120).
Even so, the underlying numbers make this look tighter than the spread suggests. The Browns are sitting at -0.6 in Net Yards per Play, with the Steelers just behind them at -0.7.
On offense, Cleveland has actually outpaced Pittsburgh by a pretty wide margin in EPA/Play, while Rodgers and the Steelers remain near the bottom of the league at 31st in EPA/Play and 30th in success rate.
That’s also the case the SI betting team is making. Senior editor Iain MacMillan is on Cleveland in his Road to 272 column, pointing to Watson’s early-season performance and the gap between the market’s view of these teams and what they’ve shown on the field.
“I may regret saying this, but I'm starting to think the Cleveland Browns are a better team than the betting market expected them to be. Deshaun Watson has been completely serviceable as their starting quarterback to begin the season, ranking 19th in adjusted EPA per play. That's far above Aaron Rodgers, who has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, ranking 31st in that metric.
The Browns and Steelers have extremely similar metrics through the first three weeks. The Browns have a Net Yards per Play of -0.6, whereas the Steelers are right behind them at -0.7.
Despite that, the Browns are getting points on their home field on a short week. That's enough for me to back Cleveland in this spot.”
The Browns’ defense is another reason this matchup has upset potential. Cleveland has held back-to-back opponents under 20 points, and Pittsburgh’s own defense slipped out of the top 10 in EPA/Play after the Week 3 win over Cincinnati. That sets up a game that could stay tight and low-scoring, which is why the under is part of the appeal here as well.
The recent head-to-head history doesn’t separate them much either. These teams have split their last 12 meetings, going 6-6 straight up in that stretch. So even with Pittsburgh’s favorite status, there’s a real case for the home dog.
For this one, the call is Cleveland to keep the momentum going and pull the upset on Thursday night, with the Browns moving to 3-1.
In Other News...
Browns Passing Game Just Caught A Break Before Steelers Week 4
The Browns passing game got a late-week boost before a division-size matchup with Pittsburgh, and it comes from an opponents roster shuffle rather than anything Cleveland did on its own. Joey Porter Jr. was already ruled out of the upcoming game because of a back injury, but the Steelers then sent the cornerback to Dallas in a deal for a second-round pick and a conditional sixth-rounder, removing one of their more familiar cover men from the AFC North picture altogether.
For Cleveland, the timing matters because Porter would have been a name the Browns would have had to account for twice a year if he had stayed put. Instead, Pittsburghs secondary depth now looks thinner, with Jamel Dean and Asante Samuel Jr. as the primary corners, and that changes the challenge for a Browns passing attack trying to find any edge it can get in Week 4. [Read more 🡒]
Quinshon Judkins Has A Browns Problem Bigger Than The Blocking
Quinshon Judkins has run into a problem in Cleveland that goes beyond what the offensive line is giving him. Through three games, the Browns back is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry with no touchdowns, a steep drop from the efficiency he showed as a rookie. Even with fewer stacked boxes in front of him, his runs have been among the leagues least effective, with Next Gen Stats putting him sixth from the bottom among NFL backs.
The Browns run-block win rate has not helped, but the film and the numbers point to a back who has been too tentative and has left too much yardage on the field. Now comes a tough test against Pittsburgh, one of the leagues top-graded run defenses, which makes this as much about Judkins finding decisiveness as it is about Cleveland creating better lanes. If the ground game is going to become a real threat, the Browns need more than cleaner blocking - they need Judkins to turn the openings he does get into something more. [Read more 🡒]
Steelers Face A Bigger Thursday Test Than Their Record Suggests
A short week has a way of stripping away the polish, and that is exactly what the Browns are walking into as they head into a Thursday matchup in Pittsburgh. Both teams are 2-1, which gives this meeting a little more weight than a typical early-season divisional game, especially with Cleveland trying to show it can travel well and handle a Steelers team that has been steadier than its record might suggest.
The numbers point to a tight game, with quarterback play and the ground attack both likely to matter in a big way. Jaylen Warren has been part of Pittsburghs offensive conversation, while Cleveland has gotten attention from Harold Fannin Jr. as the Browns continue to sort out what kind of weekly identity they want on offense, and the betting markets have even framed Cleveland as an underdog worth a look. [Read more 🡒]