ESPN’s computer did not need much time to reshuffle the NFL picture after Week 1. One Sunday was enough for the Football Power Index to pin five teams at the bottom of the league, and the list comes with some ugly numbers.
Miami is dead last at minus 7.5. Cleveland is right behind at minus 7.1.
Tennessee checks in at 30th at minus 5.4, followed by Las Vegas at minus 3.6 and the Jets at minus 3.2. Even the teams that won did not escape the basement; the Raiders beat Miami 27-13, and the Jets took down Tennessee 23-10, but both clubs still sit in the bottom five.
The losses that fed the model were decisive. Jacksonville rolled past Cleveland 34-10.
Las Vegas handled Miami. The Jets beat Tennessee in Nashville.
ESPN’s FPI updates daily, so the first Sunday of the season immediately counted as fresh evidence.
Miami’s place at the very bottom fits the early read on the Dolphins, who dropped their opener in Las Vegas and still look like a rebuild on both sides of the ball. Cleveland’s outlook is just as bleak after the Jacksonville blowout, and the Browns offense was the weakest unit in the entire index. Tennessee’s home loss to New York pushed the Titans into 30th.
The Raiders and Jets may have gotten wins, but the computer still sees problems. Las Vegas is only 29th, while the Jets are 28th. The model is weighing thin rosters and difficult remaining schedules, and those victories were not enough to move either team out of the league’s lower tier.
That bottom group also lines up with an earlier ESPN FPI forecast that already singled out Miami, Cleveland, and the Jets as long-term issues. Week 1 did not change that story. It sharpened it.
The top of the board moved fast, too. San Francisco climbed to No. 1 after a 27-7 win over Los Angeles in Melbourne, and that same FPI Super Bowl shift dropped the Rams from first to sixth in one night.
The contrast between the top and bottom is massive. The 49ers sit at plus 5.6, while Miami is at minus 7.5. That gap is more than 13 points against an average opponent on a neutral field.
Cleveland’s offense is sitting at minus 6.2 in expected points, which is a brutal place to start a season. Some of these teams were already on the radar as clubs headed toward trouble. Miami’s quarterback change, Cleveland’s stalled offense, and Tennessee’s early hole all matched that concern.
The computer is not creating new problems. It is putting numbers to the same ones after the games actually started counting. The board will shift again after Monday night and each week after that, but for now ESPN’s model says five teams are well below average - and three of them opened the season with double-digit losses.
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