Miami Shocks Ohio State - and the Odds - in Historic Cotton Bowl Upset
If you thought Miami’s run was going to end quietly in the Cotton Bowl, think again. The Hurricanes didn’t just knock off the defending national champs - they rewrote a chapter in College Football Playoff history while doing it.
Coming into the New Year’s Eve showdown as 9.5-point underdogs, Miami pulled off the biggest point-spread upset in the 12-year history of the CFP, taking down Ohio State 24-14 in the quarterfinals. That’s not just a win - that’s a statement. And it came against a Buckeyes team that’s been as steady as they come on the sport’s biggest stages.
Carson Beck led the way for Miami, and while the stat sheet won’t scream "Heisman moment," his poise and command were undeniable. This was a team that came into the postseason flying under the radar - now they’re 2-0 in the expanded 12-team format, with a gritty 10-3 win over Texas A&M already under their belt. Next up: the winner of the Sugar Bowl between Ole Miss and Georgia.
For a program that’s spent the better part of the last two decades trying to recapture its former glory, this one felt different. This wasn’t nostalgia. This was real-time dominance.
To put Miami’s upset into context, here’s a look at some of the biggest CFP surprises by the numbers - and none of them came with a spread quite like this one.
Other Notable CFP Upsets by Point Spread
TCU (+7.5) over Michigan, 2022 Semifinals
Final: TCU 51, Michigan 45
Max Duggan turned in a gutsy performance, throwing for two touchdowns and adding two more on the ground. But it was TCU’s defense that flipped the game - scoring twice on pick-sixes and leaving Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines stunned.
Ohio State (+7.5) over Alabama, 2014 Semifinals
Final: Ohio State 42, Alabama 35
This one was Ezekiel Elliott’s coming-out party. The future NFL star rumbled for 230 yards - a Sugar Bowl record - and Cardale Jones, in just his second start, connected on a 47-yard touchdown to Devin Smith that put the Buckeyes in control for good.
Not bad for a third-string quarterback.
Ohio State (+7) over Clemson, 2020 Semifinals
Final: Ohio State 49, Clemson 28
Justin Fields was locked in, throwing six touchdown passes and torching a Clemson defense that had few answers. Trey Sermon chipped in with 193 rushing yards as Ohio State piled up 639 yards of total offense in a dominant performance.
Clemson (+6.5) over Alabama, 2016 Championship
Final: Clemson 35, Alabama 31
This one came down to the wire. Deshaun Watson hit Hunter Renfrow for a 2-yard touchdown with just one second on the clock to cap a dramatic comeback.
Alabama had just taken the lead minutes earlier on a 30-yard run from Jalen Hurts, but Watson’s heroics sealed Clemson’s first national title in 35 years.
Ohio State (+5.5) over Oregon, 2014 Championship
Final: Ohio State 42, Oregon 20
Elliott was unstoppable again, this time going for 246 yards and four touchdowns. The Buckeyes’ defense did just enough to contain Marcus Mariota, who threw for 333 yards and two scores, but couldn’t keep pace with Ohio State’s ground game.
Miami now joins that list - but with a twist. None of those previous upsets came with as large a point spread as the one Miami just overcame. The Hurricanes didn’t just win; they flipped the script on what we thought we knew about this year’s playoff field.
So what’s next? That depends on the outcome of Ole Miss vs.
Georgia. But one thing’s for sure: Miami isn’t sneaking up on anybody anymore.