Greg McElroy didn’t hesitate to put a number on Clemson-LSU before the Week 1 spotlight game even kicked off, and his pick leaned toward the home side.
On the Always College Football podcast, the ESPN analyst worked through Saturday night’s matchup at Tiger Stadium by zeroing in on quarterback health, third-down execution and Dabo Swinney’s long record at Clemson before settling on LSU 27, Clemson 20. LSU hosts Clemson at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC in Lane Kiffin’s first game as LSU head coach, while Clemson comes in trying to rebound from a 7-6 season.
A big part of McElroy’s case started with LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt, who missed spring practice after multiple foot surgeries. “There's a detail kind of buried in that injured season because under pressure, Leavitt completed less than 50% of his throws,” McElroy said. “But when it's clean and things are good around him, 65%.”
He then turned to Clemson quarterback Christopher Vizzina, whose only career start came in a loss at SMU last season. “The one real data point is his lone start,” McElroy said.
“He threw for over 303 touchdowns in route to a loss.” McElroy also pointed out that Vizzina “lost a fumble on a blind side sack,” then tied that directly to the setting in Baton Rouge: “Tiger Stadium 7:30 on a Saturday night, that's blindside sack delivery system, right?”
McElroy also leaned hard on Swinney’s track record to explain why Clemson can’t be written off entirely. “The hardest fact in this game, very few things beat Davos Sweeney, right?
He's 183 and 50 at Clemson,” McElroy said. “So, no rushing yards or field position number gets him under 40% by itself.
Only two things do. If you beat him badly on third down and you complete passes at a really high clip, those are the two things that would lead to a substandard performance from the Clemson Tigers.”
His final recommendation was straightforward. “Take LSU and you can have the 10.5 points. I think they win it.”
The numbers give LSU plenty of support, and the matchup details point in the same direction. Vizzina is making his first career start as QB1 against a defense that finished third nationally on third-and-short a season ago, and Swinney said this week that Vizzina has “the pole position” but no “lifetime contract.”
Clemson is also dealing with a rebuilt front seven after losing multiple players to the NFL Draft, while LSU’s defensive front added Miami transfer Princely Umanmielen, who had nine sacks last season. On the other side, Leavitt says he’s fully healthy, and LSU added Jordan Seaton, the top-ranked tackle in the transfer portal, to help protect him. If the foot issue is truly behind Leavitt, LSU’s passing game should look more like its efficient version and less like the pressured attack that led to his three interceptions a season ago.
And then there’s the environment. LSU has won 27 straight home games against unranked opponents, and Death Valley at night is a rough place for a first-time starter making a road debut. If Vizzina gets swallowed up by the moment the way McElroy’s breakdown suggests he might, LSU has enough on both sides of the ball to turn a tight one into something more comfortable.
In Other News...
Clemsons LSU Opener Just Got A Lot More Complicated
LSUs preparations for its opener against Clemson just got a lot messier after a Louisiana judge granted a temporary injunction that allows former NFL preseason players DaeQuan Wright and Zxavian Harris to remain eligible until their legal case is resolved. The ruling keeps both players in the conversation for LSUs roster as the Tigers head into a game that already had plenty of attention attached to it, and it adds another layer to a matchup Clemson was preparing to treat like an early measuring stick.
The SEC has filed a lawsuit against LSU over the schools recruiting of former professional players, and the league now appears poised to push back harder after the injunction. Attorneys for the SEC plan to appeal the ruling, leaving LSU in the middle of a legal fight with the opener looming and a potential roster decision still hanging over one of the biggest games on its schedule. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Faces A Wild Roster Fight Just Before Clemson Opener
A legal ruling this week opened the door for LSU to add more bodies to its roster just as the Tigers are trying to get settled for the season, with former professional athletes DaeQuan Wright and Zxavian Harris now eligible to play after a federal judge granted a preliminary injunction. LSU is moving quickly to add Wright and Harris before the deadline, and it is also working to bring Blake Cotton onto the roster as well, a reminder that the personnel battles around college football can be just as intense as anything on the field.
For Clemson, the timing is hard to ignore with the opener looming, because LSU is still sorting through eligibility and roster questions while the SEC has already pushed back hard. The conference has filed a lawsuit against LSU and Lane Kiffin and plans to appeal the ruling, leaving the situation in a legal gray area even as LSU tries to get its lineup in place for the start of the year. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States No. 1 Opener Just Got A Bigger Week 1 Spotlight
The 2026 college football calendar already has plenty of heavy lifting built into it, and Clemson is right in the middle of it. The Week 1 slate features all AP Top 25 teams, but the matchup drawing the sharpest attention on the Tigers side is LSUs season debut against Clemson, part of a full opening weekend that also includes games like Louisville against Ole Miss and a packed broadcast lineup across the sport.
For Clemson, the intrigue is obvious because the opener brings an early measuring stick against a national power and a fresh LSU look under Lane Kiffin. The schedule details are set, the stage is national, and the first Saturday in September now carries even more weight for a Clemson program that will have to answer a big question right away, with the Tigers entering that one in an unexpected role. [Read more 🡒]