Clemson's basketball squad has hit the 20-win milestone in just 24 games, a benchmark that typically signals a strong NCAA Tournament bid for an ACC team. Despite a recent skid, with four consecutive losses, Coach Brad Brownell remains optimistic.
“This team did an unbelievable job to win 20 games,” Brownell remarked after a tough loss to FSU. “But now we really want 21 - and 21 has become hard.”
The Tigers are feeling the pressure as they aim for their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Despite the slump, bracket experts are still backing Clemson.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi recently shifted the Tigers from a “lock” to a “should be in” category. Since February 3, Lunardi has maintained that Clemson holds a 97-percent chance of securing an at-large bid.
“Their consensus chances are still around 90% despite the slump,” Lunardi noted. “But they have been downgraded as a result, trending lower in the conference's pecking order according to the odds.”
CBS Sports also projects Clemson in the tournament, slotting them as a No. 9 seed against No. 8-seeded Iowa in the East Region. The general consensus is that unless the Tigers completely unravel in their final three conference games, they should be dancing come March.
Let’s break down why Clemson’s postseason hopes remain solid and what they need to do to end the current jitters.
Clemson’s Bracketology Profile
Lunardi assumed Clemson’s loss to FSU was a Quad 3 setback, but it’s not that dire. FSU, winners of seven of their last nine, climbed to No. 74 in the NET rankings, meaning Clemson’s loss is classified as a Quad 2 defeat.
Despite the four-game losing streak, none of Clemson’s losses are deemed “bad” by the NET. The Tigers hold a 4-5 record in Quad 1 games and are now 6-3 in Quad 2 after the FSU matchup. Impressively, they remain undefeated in Quad 3 and Quad 4 contests.
This season’s profile is a stark contrast to 2022-23, where despite 23 wins, losses to teams with sub-200 NET rankings like South Carolina, Loyola, and Louisville, along with a defeat to sub-150 Boston College, burst their bubble.
The ACC is faring better this year, with potentially eight or nine teams making the NCAA tourney thanks to strong non-conference performances. No ACC team has a sub-.500 record in non-conference play, and Clemson, sitting at No. 38 in the NET, is the league’s eighth team in the top 40.
Path to the NCAA Tournament
Clemson could have avoided the current uncertainty by beating teams like NET No. 50 Virginia Tech and avoiding losses to No.
65 Wake Forest and No. 74 FSU.
However, opportunities remain.
Upcoming matches against NET No. 13 Louisville and a road game against No.
28 North Carolina offer chances to bolster their resume. A win in either would be significant, especially if they can close with a victory over Georgia Tech.
Avoiding a one-and-done scenario in the ACC Tournament is crucial. Currently fifth in the conference standings, Clemson is positioned to skip the opening round. Climbing into the top four would secure a bye to the quarterfinals.
Brownell emphasizes the importance of regaining momentum to avoid another first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament. Achieving a spot in the Big Dance would be a notable accomplishment for a team that underwent significant offseason changes.
Reflecting on a strong start, Brownell challenged his players, particularly Dillon Hunter and RJ Godfrey, to focus on tournament advancement. “A lot of people won't believe that we can do that,” he said.
“And that doesn't matter. It's what we believe.”
The Tigers are determined not to let their promising season end quietly.