Week Nine didn’t exactly light the world on fire, but it did keep Lowell’s Locks afloat at 25-29 ATS on the season after a 3-3 week. Clemson’s upset at Florida State at least gave the card a jolt, and now the focus shifts to a Week Ten slate that leans hard on a few numbers that feel a little too generous.
The first one that jumps off the page is LSU laying 5.5 against Alabama. The line opened around -4 and climbed, and that move clearly got attention.
Alabama can still make this uncomfortable, especially with Keelon Russell in the mix, but LSU’s passing game is the part that keeps pulling the pick in one direction. Alabama is giving up 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and Sam Leavitt has been rolling lately, completing more than 70 percent of his throws and piling up seven touchdowns without an interception over his last two games.
That’s enough for the LSU side to stand out.
Lowell’s Lock: LSU -5.5
Georgia at Ole Miss is another road favorite that looks manageable on paper. Ole Miss has been a pain point this season, but the case for Georgia is straightforward: the Bulldogs are scoring 41 points per game and allowing fewer than 15.
They just ran for 217 yards against Florida, and Ole Miss is missing Kewan Lacy. Georgia also owns the better rushing efficiency and overall EPA, even if the line sits at just 3.5.
The number may be asking a little too much from Oxford.
Lowell’s Lock: Georgia -3.5
The biggest line move on the board may be the one in South Bend, where Miami went from roughly +5.5 to +7.5 after Malachi Toney got hurt in practice. That’s a massive swing for one player, even if Toney is responsible for a huge chunk of Miami’s receiving production.
Still, the Hurricanes aren’t suddenly short on offense. Darian Mensah leads the country in QBR and adjusted completion percentage, and Miami still has Cooper Barkate, a strong running back room and one of the most efficient offenses in college football.
Notre Dame might win, but the idea that Miami is now more than a touchdown worse because of one injury is a tough sell.
Lowell’s Lock: Miami +7.5
Ohio State’s 30-18 loss at USC last week clearly left a mark, and it changed the way the Buckeyes are being treated here. They still moved the ball for 464 yards, ran for 204 and controlled possession for nearly 40 minutes, but the red-zone execution fell apart.
Luke Fahey was fine in his first start, yet the offense never finished drives. Oregon, meanwhile, showed more life with Dylan Raiola, who threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern.
Maybe that was a one-off. Maybe the coordinator change helped.
Either way, laying 7.5 with Ohio State after what happened last week is off the table.
Lowell’s Lock: Oregon +7.5
The South Carolina-Texas A&M number is the one that feels least comfortable. Some predictive models have South Carolina closer to a four-point favorite, so asking the Gamecocks to cover 6.5 is a real ask.
Texas A&M’s issue is the same one Oklahoma had: the offense just can’t move the ball. The Aggies have been struggling in conference play and are banged up at receiver, running back and on the offensive line.
South Carolina’s defense should make the run game miserable enough that A&M is forced to rely on the part of its offense that inspires the least confidence. And after all the concern about LaNorris Sellers against Oklahoma, he answered with 301 passing yards, 96 rushing yards and 42 points for South Carolina.
Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina -6.5
Clemson closes the card at Syracuse, and this one comes with plenty of reasons to hesitate. The Tigers looked much better at Florida State, where Tait Reynolds threw two touchdowns without an interception, ran for 85 yards and ripped off a 79-yard touchdown when the game got tight.
Clemson also forced four turnovers and finally looked like a competent football team. Syracuse is improved, the Dome is a nuisance, and Steve Angeli is expected to play.
Clemson is also missing enough offensive pieces that staying away would make sense. But the Tigers do have the better defense, especially up front and in the secondary, and Tait gives them something they lacked earlier in the year when the offense was going nowhere.
Score Prediction: Clemson 27, Syracuse 17
Lowell’s Lock: Clemson -2.5
Good teams win. Great teams cover.
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