Clemson’s latest preseason bracket projection comes with a catch.
Joe Lunardi’s final Bracketology update before the regular season starts has Brad Brownell’s Tigers in the field as a No. 11 seed, but that placement also sends them into one of the opening-round games in the newly expanded 76-team NCAA Tournament. Clemson is projected to face Providence of the Big East in what Lunardi labels a “First 12?”
matchup, with the winner moving on to play No. 6 Kentucky in Louisville in the Midwest Regional, which runs through Kansas City.
That part is the good news for Clemson: the Tigers are comfortably in the tournament picture. They are not listed among the Last Four In, which in this update are Providence, Utah State, Creighton, and New Mexico.
But the seed line matters, and this one does not offer much breathing room. The Tigers would still need to play an extra game, something that could be especially troublesome for a roster dealing with depth concerns, particularly in the backcourt.
All offseason, Clemson has bounced around the No. 10 to No. 12 range in bracket projections. Even with three straight monthly updates slotting the Tigers as a No. 11 seed, the message has stayed the same: this team looks like an NCAA Tournament team, but not necessarily one that can avoid the opening round.
In this expanded format, simply landing in the No. 10 range may not be enough. Lunardi’s latest board shows four projected No. 10 seeds headed into opening-round games, including Georgia against Iowa and TCU against VCU. For Clemson to steer clear of that extra hurdle, it appears the Tigers would need to climb to a No. 9 seed or better, which would put them inside the top 36 teams.
There is at least a little uncertainty built into the new setup. First Four teams have already gone on runs in recent tournaments, and Sean Miller’s Texas team last season is the example cited here. Texas beat NC State in the First Four before falling to Purdue by two points in the Sweet 16.
But since this is a new bracket, the usual read on seed lines may not apply in the same way. A No. 11 seed used to scream bubble team.
That does not seem to be the case anymore. For Clemson, the path is straightforward: keep improving the resume, protect the current spot, and do enough to get out of that opening round if possible.
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