Week 7 left Lowell’s Locks at .500, but the board for Week 8 offers a clear chance to push back above water.
A 2-4 finish last week dropped the season mark to 21-21 against the spread after LSU beat Mississippi State, Charleston Southern still came through as an easy cover despite a 37-0 loss, and Indiana missed by half a point against Ohio State. Tennessee handled Alabama by 16, Ole Miss rolled Missouri, and BYU knocked Notre Dame off outright, but the damage still left the Locks even on the year.
Saturday’s card starts with a familiar play: Indiana. The No.
6 Hoosiers return as 7.5-point favorites at Michigan after last week’s half-point miss, and the matchup sets up well for them. Freshman Tommy Carr is in line for his first start after replacing Bryce Underwood against Penn State, and while Carr helped Michigan rally, he threw for just 47 yards.
Indiana’s defense has been stout against the run, and if Michigan can’t lean on that part of its offense, the pressure falls quickly on a freshman quarterback making his first start. The thinking is simple: Indiana may not need a massive day if Michigan can’t crack the teens.
Lowell’s Lock: Indiana -7.5.
LSU is next, laying 6.5 at Auburn, and the skepticism toward the Tigers is plain. Auburn finally got its signature win by stunning Georgia 27-24, but it needed a 3-0 turnover edge while getting outgained.
LSU’s defense is built to force Auburn to grind out yards without living off explosive plays, and the Tigers from Auburn will also be without Xavier Atkins after the All-SEC linebacker was dismissed from the program this week. Jordan-Hare is the concern more than Auburn itself, but that still isn’t enough to sway the pick.
Lowell’s Lock: LSU -6.5.
BYU, fresh off the biggest win of its season, is also laying 6.5 at UCF. The letdown angle is obvious, and LJ Martin remains unavailable, but UCF’s quarterback situation works in BYU’s favor.
The Knights are sticking with Keyone Jenkins while Alonza Barnett III works his way back, and they have been much easier to attack through the air than on the ground. BYU does not need to replay the Notre Dame game; it just needs Bachmeier to take what UCF offers and keep the Knights from stealing short fields.
Below a touchdown, that works. Lowell’s Lock: BYU -6.5.
The South Carolina-Tennessee number is a little different, with the Gamecocks giving 2.5 at home, but the pick leans to the Volunteers. South Carolina has already shown it can look like the better team and still make things messy, which makes laying points with the Gamecocks dangerous.
Their run defense can force DeSean Bishop to work, and LaNorris Sellers is the quarterback more trusted late, but Tennessee’s front can make South Carolina earn every inch as well. George MacIntyre should not need to throw 40 times if Bishop keeps drives on schedule.
The read here is that South Carolina could absolutely win something like 24-23, so the points matter. Lowell’s Lock: Tennessee +2.5.
The favorite pick of the week is Ole Miss plus 3.5 at Texas. The Longhorns have looked lost on offense for two straight games, Arch Manning has struggled when pressure gets home, the offensive line has not held up consistently, and the run game has not given him enough relief.
To make matters worse for Texas, Colin Simmons, the nation’s leader in sacks and tackles for loss, is officially out with an ankle injury. Ole Miss has its own defensive flaws, but Trinidad Chambliss is playing better than Arch right now, and the Rebels have enough balance to prevent Texas from selling out against the pass.
If the game comes down to late plays from both quarterbacks, the edge goes to Ole Miss. Lowell’s Lock: Ole Miss +3.5.
Clemson closes the slate as a 2.5-point favorite against Virginia Tech, and this one comes with a score prediction attached. Tait Reynolds showed something in the loss to Miami, throwing 44 times for 295 yards and proving Clemson can still move the ball when forced to throw.
That matters against a Virginia Tech defense that has been tougher against the run than the pass. Protection is the worry, since the Hokies can create problems if Clemson keeps ending up behind the sticks, but the Tigers’ defense gets the benefit of the doubt.
Only LSU and Miami have topped 20 against Clemson this season, and Virginia Tech does not bring that level of firepower. If Clemson can hold the Hokies near 17, Reynolds only needs a steady night and no mistakes.
Score prediction: Clemson 24, Virginia Tech 17. Lowell’s Lock: Clemson -2.5.
Good teams win. Great teams cover.
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