Miami heads into Week 5 looking every bit like a team built to keep rolling, and Darian Mensah is the biggest reason why. The No. 4 Hurricanes are undefeated, favored by double digits on the road against Clemson, and have a path that keeps pointing toward a huge finish if they can avoid a major slip.
That’s a pretty different setup from the kind of Clemson-Miami game fans usually circle. The Tigers are 3-1, but they’re still outside the top 25 after getting blown out by LSU in Week 1, and the offense has not looked like the kind that can keep up with Miami’s pace. Christopher Vizzina is out at quarterback, freshman Tait Reynolds has taken over, and the results haven’t really changed much for Clemson on that side of the ball.
The numbers tell the story. Clemson is 117th in the country in EPA/Play, 102nd in success rate, 133rd in EPA/Pass, and outside the top 100 in passing success rate.
Even on the ground, the Tigers are only 90th in success rate. That leaves a defense that has to do a lot of heavy lifting, and while that unit has been solid - 25th in EPA/Play - it can only carry so much.
Miami, meanwhile, has the kind of quarterback play that can tilt a game fast. Mensah is No. 2 in the odds to win the Heisman Trophy behind Jeremiah Smith, and he’s been excellent through four games.
He has thrown for 1,211 yards and 14 touchdowns without an interception, while also adding 52 rushing yards and a score on nine carries. Most impressive of all, he’s completed 88.7 percent of his passes.
That kind of efficiency has powered a Hurricanes offense that ranks 17th in EPA/Pass, eighth in offensive success rate on pass plays, and 21st in third/fourth down success rate. The run game has been far less productive - Miami is 69th in EPA/Rush and 110th in success rate on run plays - so this matchup feels like one where the Hurricanes lean heavily on Mensah’s arm again.
Clemson has done enough since that LSU loss to stay relevant in the ACC, beating Georgia Southern, North Carolina and Cal. But none of those wins came by more than 15 points, and they haven’t exactly erased the concerns from opening week. The Tigers are still trying to rebuild their case, and the offense hasn’t given much reason to believe it can trade punches with one of the country’s best teams.
Miami hasn’t exactly been tested by a murderers’ row either, but the Wake Forest win looks better after the Demon Deacons upset a ranked Louisville team in Week 4. The Hurricanes are 3-1 against the spread, and they’ve been efficient on both sides of the ball, ranking 24th in EPA/Play on offense and 37th on defense.
I’m not buying the Clemson bounce-back after a few wins over lesser opponents. LSU exposed this team in Week 1, and Miami has the quarterback play to stretch this thing beyond reach if Clemson’s offense can’t answer.
With no real passing game to match up against elite competition, Clemson is asking a lot of its defense. That’s too much against a Miami team led by Mensah, so I’d lay the points with the Hurricanes at any number inside 21.
In Other News...
Clemson's New Edge Could Put Miami In A Dangerous Spot
Mario Cristobal spent part of a recent media session breaking down what has made Clemson so difficult to deal with lately, and the answer started with how the Tigers have finished games. Their second-half play has stood out, along with the kind of discipline and in-game adjustments that can turn a tight matchup into one that gets away from an opponent. For Miami, the message is simple enough: if the Hurricanes want to avoid getting dragged into Clemsons preferred kind of game, they need to get on the board early and force the Tigers to chase.
That is easier said than done against a team that has shown both defensive resilience and a coaching staff capable of tightening things up as the game wears on. The matchup sets up as a test of styles and sideline management, with Miami trying to create enough early cushion to keep Clemson from settling into its rhythm. From Clemsons side, the recent formula has been clear enough to be dangerous. [Read more 🡒]
Clemson Faces A Growing Availability Worry Before Huge Miami Test
Clemson is entering a crucial stretch with availability becoming a bigger part of the conversation than the opponent on the other sideline. Ahead of the Miami game, Dabo Swinney said several injured players are still being monitored, with some getting work in practice and others continuing to work back from recent injuries as the Tigers try to sort out their depth before a marquee ACC matchup.
The group includes Corian Gipson, Elyjah Thurmon and Devarrick Woods, all of whom are still in uncertain territory heading into the week, while backup quarterback Christopher Vizzina remains out with an elbow issue. Defensive tackle Kourtney Kelly is making progress from an ACL tear, but Clemson is still waiting to see how much of this injured core will actually be available when the Tigers need it most. [Read more 🡒]
Clemson Faces One Huge Test After Its Cross-Country Win
The trip to Berkeley ended the way Clemson needed it to, with a 24-10 win over Cal and a quick turnaround back home to South Carolina afterward. Dabo Swinney liked the effort his team showed in managing the long haul, and the Tigers were back on the practice field Sept. 28 as they shifted attention to what comes next.
What comes next is the kind of game that can define an ACC season, with No. 4 Miami arriving in Death Valley on Oct. 3. Cross-country trips have not always been kind to league teams in the game that follows, so Clemsons focus now turns to whether it can carry the same edge from California into a matchup that will tell plenty about where the Tigers stand. [Read more 🡒]