Week 10 finally gave this column the Saturday it had been waiting for, and the 5-1 finish pulled the season mark back to 30-30. Georgia rolled, Miami survived the number, Oregon won outright, South Carolina handled business and Clemson covered again. LSU was the only miss.
Now the board turns to Week 11, and the slate is built around five plays that all come with their own kind of discomfort.
The first one is the most uneasy of the bunch, even if the number makes it worth the swing. Texas is catching 4.5 at LSU, and the concern starts with what the Tigers can do up front.
LSU has been one of the best teams in the country at creating sacks, while Texas has spent too much of this season letting Arch Manning take hits. The Tigers can also shut down the run without bringing extra defenders, which sets up the kind of third-and-long day that can get ugly fast in Tiger Stadium at night.
Still, the line is the line. LSU moved from underdog to laying more than a field goal, while most predictive numbers still make this a two-to-four-point game.
Texas has also been playing its best football over the last month, with Manning looking much more comfortable than he did earlier in the year. A 24-21 LSU win would not be a shock.
Neither would Texas winning outright. The pick is Texas +4.5.
The next stop is Norman, where Oklahoma is laying 1 against Ole Miss. This one looked like a Rebels play at first glance, but the matchup points the other way once you dig in.
Ole Miss has had trouble stopping the run all season, and Oklahoma needs the game simplified. The Sooners have not thrown the ball consistently or created many explosive plays, so the cleanest path is obvious: run it, use John Mateer’s legs and avoid obvious passing downs.
That plan gets even more appealing because Oklahoma’s defense has been excellent. The Sooners have done a strong job getting off the field on third down, generating pressure and preventing opponents from stringing together drives.
That matters against an Ole Miss offense that is already without Kewan Lacy and now has to deal with a defense that can make every possession feel like work. There is also the public angle here, with the overwhelming majority of tickets on the Rebels while several sharper handicappers have backed Oklahoma.
The Sooners do not need fireworks. If they run the ball, avoid short fields and let the defense dictate terms, that should be enough.
Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma -1.
Georgia is next, and the number is a big one: the Bulldogs are laying 14.5 at home against Missouri. That is a lot to give a ranked team, but Georgia keeps making it harder to find reasons not to trust it.
The Bulldogs just hammered Ole Miss 42-7, and a week earlier they held Florida scoreless through three quarters. Missouri has enough at quarterback to make things annoying for a while, but Georgia’s defense has been suffocating and the offense does not need Gunner Stockton to carry everything.
The Bulldogs can run the ball, control the tempo and keep handing the game back to the defense. Missouri could absolutely hang around long enough to make this uncomfortable, maybe even land on a 31-17 type result that burns the number by a half point.
Even so, the expectation is that Georgia creates separation late. Lowell’s Lock: Georgia -14.5.
The Utah-Arizona game is more about trust than anything else. Utah is 9-0, Devon Dampier keeps making plays and the Utes have been one of the most reliable teams against the spread all season.
Arizona is good, Noah Fifita can throw it around and Tucson is a real road environment. This is also the kind of spot where an undefeated team coming off an emotional rivalry win can get caught looking ahead.
Even with all that in mind, Utah is still the side. Arizona has had defensive issues against better offenses, and the injury situation on that side of the ball does not help.
Dampier gives Utah a way to create offense when the usual stuff breaks down, which matters in a game that should still be tight in the second half. If the number is only 2.5, the choice is the team that has given fewer reasons to doubt it.
Lowell’s Lock: Utah -2.5.
The final pick is South Carolina laying 8 at Arkansas, and this one would have felt better at seven. LaNorris Sellers is dealing with an ankle injury, the Gamecocks are on the road and Arkansas is now getting more than a touchdown, which usually makes the home dog tempting.
But the matchup keeps pulling back toward South Carolina because Arkansas has been awful against the run. The Gamecocks have been one of the better rushing offenses in the country on a per-play basis, while Arkansas has been one of the worst teams in the country at stopping it.
Even if Sellers is not at full strength, this is a friendlier matchup than some of the defenses he has faced lately. He has also earned some trust after nearly 400 total yards against Oklahoma and after South Carolina beat Texas A&M by eight while allowing nine points.
The number is a little uncomfortable, but the matchup still says lay it. Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina -8.
The week closes with Clemson laying 14 at home against Georgia Tech, and this one comes down to a simple belief: Georgia Tech may not score enough to make Clemson’s offensive issues matter. The Tigers’ offense is still hard to trust.
Tait Reynolds is banged up, the offensive line has injuries and two good weeks do not erase what happened in September and October. But Georgia Tech enters Death Valley with a long injury list, has been awful on third down and struggles in pass protection.
That should let Clemson’s defense force the Yellow Jackets behind the chains, pressure the quarterback and keep possessions short. Clemson does not need an offensive explosion to cover.
If the defense holds Georgia Tech near 10 points, something like 27 from the offense is enough. The danger is a game Clemson controls without really finishing drives, the kind of 24-13 result that has burned backers before.
Even so, the defense should create enough margin. Lowell’s Lock: Clemson -14.
Good teams win. Great teams cover.
In Other News...
Clemsons Georgia Tech Loss Exposed A Much Bigger Problem
Clemsons trip to Georgia Tech turned into more than just a frustrating 20-6 loss, because the offense again spent the afternoon searching for answers after Tait Reynolds was injured early and did not return. Christopher Vizzina took over at quarterback, but the Tigers never found the kind of rhythm they needed, and the result was another game without an offensive touchdown.
Nolan Hauser at least gave the Tigers a small bright spot by setting the program record for field goals made in a single season, but even that milestone underscored how much the offense has been leaning on the kicking game. For a team with bigger goals, the concern now is not just one bad outing in Atlanta, but a second straight week without an offensive touchdown and the uncertainty that comes with Reynolds status moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Clemson Suddenly Has A Bigger QB Concern Than Fans Expected
Clemsons quarterback depth took an immediate hit against Georgia Tech when freshman Tait Reynolds went down with a left knee injury on the opening drive and had to leave the game. Reynolds was later seen wearing a brace on his left leg and did not return, forcing the Tigers to turn to third-string quarterback Trent Pearman much earlier than expected.
Christopher Vizzina, Clemsons usual backup, remains available but is still not fully healthy after a recent ankle sprain, which leaves the Tigers with more uncertainty behind center than they likely anticipated. Dabo Swinney was set to offer an injury update at halftime, and for a team trying to settle its quarterback situation, the next few hours could matter a great deal. [Read more 🡒]
Clemsons QB Situation Just Got More Concerning After Vizzinas Exit
Clemsons quarterback depth took another hit in the loss to Georgia Tech, and Christopher Vizzinas night ended in far more troubling fashion than the ankle sprain he had been managing. The backup still fought through the game, finishing with 133 passing yards, one interception and 18 rushing yards on six carries, but his availability became a concern again late when he absorbed a head and neck injury and had to be taken to the hospital.
Dabo Swinney said the injury was more serious than the ankle issue Vizzina entered the game with, a development that only adds to the uncertainty around Clemsons quarterback room. Swinney also pointed to Vizzinas effort in a tough spot, noting that he kept competing despite having already dealt with multiple injuries, but the bigger question now is how long the Tigers may be without him. [Read more 🡒]