The Tyler Stephenson conversation around Cincinnati has been hanging in the air since the 2026 season ended, and the latest contract forecast suggests the Reds may be closer to a reunion than many assume. The bigger question now is whether that reunion happens in 2027 rather than on the first day of free agency.
Jim Bowden of The Athletic placed Stephenson among the top-40 free agents on the market this offseason and named the Reds as one of the likeliest destinations, alongside the Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, and Los Angeles Angels. Bowden projected a two-year deal worth $16 million for the Cincinnati catcher.
On paper, that number fits a player with Stephenson’s profile. He brings offense, handles the position well, and has been one of the league’s better blockers.
He’s also a reliable source of double-digit home runs each year. Bowden ranked Ryan Jeffers just behind him at two years and $15.5 million, even though Jeffers offers more at the plate while not matching Stephenson’s defense behind the dish.
An $8 million average annual value for a veteran catcher like Stephenson feels reasonable, especially when it lines up with contracts for Victor Caratini, Danny Jansen, and Carson Kelly.
The Reds, for their part, already showed at the August 3 deadline how much they value Stephenson. That same appreciation has been reflected in the way Stephenson has talked about the organization, the city, and his teammates.
He also got emotional in an on-field interview just before last summer’s deadline, another sign of how much Cincinnati means to him. Still, the sides have not gotten a deal done, which leaves the central question hanging: what exactly is the holdup?
The answer may come down to timing and leverage. Cincinnati has real hope in Alfredo Duno, its top prospect and a player many scouts believe needs at least another year before taking over. At the same time, Jose Trevino is signed through 2027 with an option for 2028, though he’s viewed as little more than a backup now.
Stephenson, though, has every reason to aim high. He may be the best catcher on the market, and with so few quality options available, another team could be willing to go beyond Bowden’s two-year projection. Spotrac has him landing a four-year, $46 million deal, but that $11.6 million AAV looks aggressive.
For Reds fans, the most realistic path may be simple: Stephenson tests the market, gathers the best offers he can, and gives Cincinnati a chance to match the top number. If the Reds pass, that tells the story. If they bite, the wait ends quickly.
The whole situation has felt strange from the outset, even before Stephenson reached his final arbitration year. But with free agency about to open next week and Stephenson standing as the top catcher available, this one should move fast - likely with a new deal in hand before the lockout on December 1.
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