The Cincinnati Reds are stuck in a place that looks a lot like nowhere.
There are a few real bright spots on the roster - Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns stand out, Andrew Abbott is very good, and JJ Bleday has been a pleasant surprise. Sal Stewart has also been solid. Beyond that, though, the picture gets ugly fast.
Using fWAR as the measuring stick, the Reds’ position-by-position rankings paint a rough map of the roster. They sit 23rd at catcher, 16th at first base, 28th at second base, 30th at third base, 4th at shortstop, 9th in left field, 27th in center field, 29th in right field, 21st at designated hitter, 17th in starting pitching and 28th in relief pitching.
That’s not a team with a few soft spots. That’s a team with holes everywhere.
The deeper problem is that the failures aren’t isolated. The front office owns part of this, and Terry Francona and his staff do too.
Either the hitting approach isn’t working or the roster is full of players who simply aren’t major league caliber. However you slice it, the result is the same.
If the Reds want something that actually resembles a competitive club next year, the core is pretty clear. De La Cruz and Stewart belong in the lineup, and Bleday probably does too, though with a short leash. Burns, Abbott and Hunter Greene should be in the rotation, with Lodolo in the mix if he can ever stay on the field.
Spencer Steer fits better as a bench piece, even if he winds up getting around 400 plate appearances because of injuries. The point is that he’s not the kind of automatic starter who solves a problem at first base, left field or DH just by being there.
Everything else is open. All of it.
It’s easy to talk yourself into excuses - the injuries, the near misses, the “what if” scenarios. But this group, as currently built, just isn’t good enough.
If a player isn’t producing at roughly 2.5 WAR per 600 plate appearances, there’s not much reason to keep pretending otherwise. Everyone on this roster, with rookie Edwin Arroyo as the exception, has already had a fair shot.
And the help in the system doesn’t look like enough. Doug Gray’s prospect list doesn’t offer much immediate relief.
Arroyo is still a hope. Hector Rodriguez probably has a chance.
Alfredo Duno might arrive eventually, maybe next year if things break right. Carlos Jorge is there too, though it’s fair to wonder whether he’s really an everyday player.
The pitching depth, meanwhile, is basically nonexistent.
That means the Reds are going to have to buy their way out of some of this. If they want to avoid another ugly season, they’ll need outside help, especially on the pitching side. They also need a serious shakeup in the front office.
At some point, the organization has to stop acting like familiarity is a qualification. If the plan is to keep running things because “My daddy knows your daddy and so now we get to work together!”, that’s not a plan at all.
The Reds are asking fans to care. Right now, they’re giving them very little reason to.
In Other News...
Reds Roster Shakeup Feels Inevitable As Some Young Players Run Out Of Rope
With the Reds sliding and looking increasingly like deadline sellers, the roster churn feels less like a possibility than a matter of timing. Cincinnati has already pushed Edwin Arroyo and Chase Petty back to the minors, and the next wave of decisions may be even more telling as the club tries to sort out which young players are ready to help and which ones need more time in Louisville.
Hctor Rodrguez and Michael Toglia are among the names knocking on the door from Triple-A, while the big-league side of the ledger is getting harder to ignore. TJ Friedl and Noelvi Marte have both been part of the conversation about who might be better served by a reset at Louisville, and those kinds of calls tend to come faster when a team is trying to balance development with the reality of a disappointing season. [Read more 🡒]
Elly De La Cruz Just Reached Another Reds First As Infield Changes
Elly De La Cruz keeps adding to a Reds rsum that already looks unlike anyone elses in club history, and his latest milestone came in the middle of a roster day that also reshaped the infield around him. Cincinnati activated Matt McLain from the injured list and sent Edwin Arroyo to Triple-A Louisville, a reminder that the team is still sorting out how its young middle-infield pieces fit as the season moves along.
For Arroyo, the move reflects the usual growing pains that come with jumping into the majors before everything is fully settled. Terry Francona said young players can look sped up at this level, and the expectation is that Arroyo will be back once he has had time to adjust and get stronger and better prepared for the next chance. [Read more 🡒]
Surprising Reds Deadline Proposal Would Test Fans' Patience Fast
A proposed deadline idea from Bleacher Report would ask the Reds to make a move that is easy to understand on the spreadsheet and a lot harder to sell in the clubhouse and to the fan base. The pitch centers on Cincinnati adding two Chicago White Sox players in exchange for three useful big leaguers, with the appeal being a modest salary dip and the chance to land a prospect who has climbed quickly enough to get attention.
The catch is that the return does not read like a classic win-now haul, even with one of the pieces already having reached the majors and another carrying some prospect intrigue. For a Reds team trying to balance present value with future flexibility, that is the kind of proposal that can test patience fast, because it asks for real roster certainty now in exchange for a package that still leaves plenty of questions about what the payoff would actually be. [Read more 🡒]