Terry Francona had a simple read in a high-leverage moment Tuesday night, and it paid off for the Cincinnati Reds.
With the bases loaded against the San Diego Padres and Jose Trevino at the plate, Francona chose to ride with Trevino instead of going to Tyler Stephenson off the bench. The call turned into the kind of small managerial decision that can swing a game: Trevino ripped a line drive up the middle to put the Reds ahead 3-2, and Juan Brito followed with an RBI single.
Afterward, Francona laid out exactly why he stayed put.
"I just know he can get to velocity," Francona said of Trevino. "That guy for them was throwing 98, 99. I also know he could hit into a double play, but we had Steve-o behind him if he didn't drive him in, but he had a really good at-bat and so did Brito."
The numbers made the choice make sense. Trevino came into the night batting .269 against pitches of 95 mph or faster this season, with a .615 slugging percentage. League hitters, by comparison, were at .240 with a .376 slugging percentage against those pitches.
That’s not just good in a Reds uniform. It’s well above what the average big leaguer has done against velocity.
Stephenson, who was ready to pinch-hit if Trevino failed to cash in the opportunity, has also been strong in that area, hitting .299 with a .494 slugging percentage against pitches at least 95 mph.
That matters for a Cincinnati lineup that has had trouble with heat this season. Matt McLain has hit .132 with a .276 slugging percentage against 95-plus mph pitches.
TJ Friedl is at .115 and .197. Eugenio Suárez has posted a .170 average and .264 slugging percentage.
Ke'Bryan Hayes sits at .195 and .317, and Spencer Steer is at .172 and .264.
Francona had the right feel for the spot, and the data backed him up. In a game decided by a few key swings, sticking with Trevino became one of the biggest calls of the night.
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What stood out in his remarks was the clarity about what comes next. Votto said he wants any future role in baseball to matter, whether that eventually leads to operations or coaching, and he is not interested in a limited advisory gig that leaves him on the margins. For Reds fans who spent so long watching him shape the middle of their lineup, it was another reminder that if Votto does return to the game in a different capacity, he wants the assignment to be a real one. [Read more 🡒]