Shota Imanaga has the kind of numbers that can tempt a team into dreaming bigger than it should. For the Reds, though, the fit gets tricky fast.
Cincinnati does not exactly need a frontline ace. The bigger issues sit deeper in the rotation, where the back end has been the concern. Even so, uneven seasons from Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo have changed the conversation a bit, and adding a starter who could work near the top with Chase Burns is at least worth serious thought.
The problem is that Imanaga is more good than great. He profiles as a solid mid-rotation starter, the kind of pitcher who can live in the mid-to-high threes in ERA and still help a club.
That matters. It just may not matter enough for the Reds, because one glaring weakness could make him a bad match for Cincinnati.
That weakness is the home run ball.
Imanaga finished 2026 with 32 starts, 174⅓ innings, and a 3.77 ERA. He struck out 8.98 batters per nine innings and walked just 5.2% of hitters, which is a strong combination on paper.
But the 1.81 HR/9 he allowed stands out in a bad way. He also leaned heavily toward fly balls, with a 36.9% ground ball rate, and 16.1% of those fly balls left the yard.
That was a career-worst mark.
Since coming stateside before the 2024 season, Imanaga has posted the fifth-highest HR/9 among qualified starters at 1.70. That sits just behind former Reds pitcher Zack Littell’s 1.71 HR/9 over the same span. Littell was serviceable in Cincinnati, putting up a 4.39 ERA in 10 starts, but when he reached free agency last year, the fit issue was obvious for the same reason.
If Imanaga came to Cincinnati and gave the Reds something like Littell’s version of production, that would probably be the best-case outcome. It would be acceptable.
It would not be ideal. And there’s a real chance it could get worse.
Great American Ball Park is the fourth-most homer-friendly park in the league, according to Statcast park factors, with a 113 rating over the last three seasons. Wrigley Field sits at 106. That gap matters.
Imanaga is 33, so a long-term deal is not likely, but he should still command real money. Jim Bowden projected a three-year, $69 million contract. MLB Trade Rumors was lower, but even its two-year, $40 million estimate is still a major investment.
Cincinnati could make that kind of deal work, but only by passing on help in other places such as third base, catcher, and the bullpen. That alone is enough to make the front office hesitate.
And if the park and pitcher simply do not match, the payoff on that investment disappears. A cheaper option might give the Reds more value, and maybe even a better overall roster in the end.
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Sal Stewart gave the Reds plenty to feel good about in his rookie season, and the bat alone made him one of the most productive first-year players in the National League. He finished third in the league in RBIs and added 32 home runs, the kind of power output that can carry a lineup and shape an award race all by itself.
Still, Rookie of the Year is rarely decided on offense alone, and this one has a few layers for anyone looking beyond the counting stats. The finalists include Stewart, Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt and Mets right fielder Carson Benge, and the broader numbers paint a different picture, with Wetherholt and Benge bringing more complete value across the board. For Reds fans, the case for Stewart is obvious, but so is the argument that the race may be tighter than his home run total suggests. [Read more 🡒]