With the end of the 2026 regular season coming into view, the National League Rookie of the Year race has mostly looked decided for weeks. Then Wednesday brought a little life back into it: the Cardinals activated second baseman JJ Wetherholt from the injured list after he missed more than two weeks with right wrist tendinitis.
That gives Wetherholt a chance to make one last push with just a week and a half left, even if the current board still points strongly in one direction. Here’s where the top four candidates stand, with DraftKings odds attached.
Sal Stewart of the Reds remains the clear favorite at -2500, and the reason is easy to see. He has mashed 31 home runs and driven in 107 runs, putting him only four behind the MLB lead in RBI. Only two rookies in history - Ted Williams in 1939 and Walt Dropo in 1950 - have ever led the majors in RBI, and Stewart is already the 14th rookie to reach 30 homers and 100 RBI.
That kind of production would have locked up the award in a different era, and it still may be enough now. Stewart’s slash line sits at .266/.335/.470 with a 122 OPS+, and he has 15 stolen bases, but his overall value is weighed down by negative defensive value and just 2.2 WAR.
In the modern game, that leaves room for debate. In the betting market, not much.
Nolan McLean of the Mets is next at +1200. The right-hander is 11-9 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 184 strikeouts across 166 ⅔ innings, which has produced 2.6 WAR.
It’s a solid rookie season, just not one that screams runaway winner. He has two scheduled starts left, so there is only so much ground he can make up.
Short of something extreme - like two shutouts - McLean looks more like a lock for second or third than a threat to take the whole thing.
Wetherholt comes in at +3500, and now he’s back in the mix physically, at least. Over 130 games, he has hit .242/.343/.370 with 14 doubles, 17 homers, 48 RBI, 88 runs and 14 steals.
His case is built differently from Stewart’s: on-base skill, baserunning and, especially, strong defense. That combination has him sitting atop the group in WAR at 4.7.
That’s where the real tension in this race lives. It’s WAR against the kind of traditional counting stats that still grab voters’ attention.
There’s been plenty of chatter that voters lean too hard on WAR, but that’s not what this race suggests. If WAR were truly the only thing that mattered, Wetherholt would be the overwhelming choice.
Instead, Stewart’s home run and RBI totals are still carrying the day.
Carson Benge of the Mets rounds out the group at +7500. In 145 games, he is hitting .272/.336/.416 with 19 doubles, three triples, 18 home runs, 58 RBI, 78 runs and 22 steals, along with 3.5 WAR. It’s been a strong rookie year, the kind that deserves at least some recognition when ballots are cast, even if that ends up meaning only a few third-place votes.
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