September has arrived, and with it comes the part of the MLB calendar when the Rookie of the Year picture starts to sharpen. The National League still has a real race on its hands, while the American League has a clear front-runner - even if a few players are still hanging around with a chance to make things interesting.
In the AL, McGonigle sits alone at the top of the board. His rookie year got off to such a blistering start that he landed a $150 million extension 17 days into the season, and he’s carried that momentum into the stretch run.
The 2026 All-Star has bounced between shortstop and third base and handled both spots well enough defensively, while giving Detroit steady production at the plate. He’s hitting .274/.375/.415 with 14 homers, 58 RBIs and 12 steals.
The real separator for McGonigle has been the strike zone. He leads rookies with 81 walks and has struck out only 82 times, a rare combination for a first-year player.
He also owns 4.6 fWAR, which leads all rookies and ranks eighth among all position players. August was a quieter month for him, though, as he posted a .697 OPS, and his counting stats still leave room for someone else to surge.
The best bet to chase him down is Parker Messick. The Guardians lefty has been excellent across 27 starts, posting a 2.46 ERA and 3.05 FIP with 161 strikeouts and 43 walks in 161 innings.
He works the ball on the ground, limits free passes and shows enough pitch variety to keep both right-handed and left-handed hitters in check. His 4.6 fWAR leads all rookie pitchers, and if anyone is going to put pressure on McGonigle, it’s probably the only rookie pitcher chosen for this year’s All-Star Game.
Another pitcher worth keeping in the mix is Red Sox left-hander Payton Tolle. In 23 starts, he has put together a 3.23 ERA with 147 strikeouts and 37 walks over 131 innings.
He doesn’t vary speeds much, but he leans on a fastball mix that includes a four-seamer, sinker and cutter, using those pitches 88% of the time. At 6-foot-6, he also creates exceptional extension, ranking in the 98th percentile per Baseball Savant, which makes his pitches tougher to read.
Honorable mentions in the AL go to Tristan Peters of the White Sox, Chase DeLauter of the Guardians and Kazuma Okamoto of the Blue Jays.
The NL race has more movement at the top, and Sal Stewart has made the loudest case with his bat. He leads MLB with 105 RBIs, and if he finishes there, he’d make rare history - no rookie has led the majors in RBIs since 1950. Through 138 games, the 22-year-old is hitting .266/.337/.489 with 31 homers, 25 doubles and 12 steals.
Stewart’s power numbers are especially eye-catching in Reds history. His 31 homers are the second-most by a Cincinnati rookie, behind only Frank Robinson’s 38 in 1956.
He’s also in rare company league-wide: the only other rookie in MLB history with at least 30 home runs, 100 RBIs, 25 doubles and 10 stolen bases is José Canseco in 1986, when he won AL Rookie of the Year with the A’s. Stewart is a playable defender at first base, but the bat is what separates him from everyone else in the NL rookie class and gives him a strong case to become the first Red to win the award since Jonathan India in 2021.
JJ Wetherholt has also put together a strong season, though a late wrist injury could complicate his bid. The Cardinals second baseman and leadoff hitter has been especially valuable on defense, ranking third in MLB in defensive runs saved with 16 and outs above average with 22. Only Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Armstrong are ahead of him in both categories, and that defensive impact has helped him lead NL rookies with 4.4 fWAR.
At the plate, Wetherholt has been solid rather than spectacular. He has 17 home runs, 48 RBIs and 14 steals, along with a .713 OPS.
His 104 wRC+ shows he’s been just above league average offensively, with the lack of extra-base damage keeping the line from jumping off the page. Even so, his walk rate of 10.8% and strikeout rate of 16.2% are both better than league average, which gives him a strong foundation if he can finish healthy.
McLean has also surged into the conversation with a big second half. After a 3.52 ERA over his first 19 starts, he has trimmed that to 2.05 in his last eight outings.
For the year, he’s sitting on a 3.06 ERA with 172 strikeouts in 155 2/3 innings. Control has been his one real issue, as his 3.53 BB/9 is high for a top starter, but his swing-and-miss stuff has more than balanced it out.
His sinker and curveball are his calling cards, powered by elite spin and sharp late movement. Outside of a rough May, when he posted a 6.10 ERA, McLean has been excellent, and he has allowed two runs or fewer in 14 of his last 16 starts.
Benge has quietly become one of the Mets’ few dependable position players this season, appearing in 132 games and giving them a little bit of everything. He’s hitting .757 OPS with 16 homers, 54 RBIs and 19 steals, a combination no other rookie can match.
He’s also been better in the second half, batting .308 with an .824 OPS in 38 games as he adjusted to major league pitching. He’s still a long shot compared with Stewart, Wetherholt and McLean, but his rookie year has been good enough to deserve recognition.
Honorable mentions in the NL include Foster Griffin of the Nationals and TJ Rumfield of the Rockies.
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