With 45 games left, the Reds have landed right back in a place Cincinnati fans know too well: close enough to dream, far enough away to dread what comes next.
For a stretch after the All-Star break, they gave themselves a real opening. They won five of their first six series, then carried a four-game winning streak into Washington and finally climbed out of last place after 69 days, nudging past the Pittsburgh Pirates into fourth in the National League Central.
Then came Washington.
The Nationals didn’t just take the series - they flattened the Reds in a three-game sweep, 5-3, 8-2 and 7-1. What had looked like a push toward the final wild-card spot now feels like a chase with no real end in sight.
And the path ahead only gets uglier. Over the last month, the Reds have trailed five teams in the race for that last playoff berth - San Diego, Miami, St.
Louis, Pittsburgh and Washington - by five to six games. Now they’ve got 45 games to climb over all of them, and the schedule offers no soft landing.
Late this month and into September, they’ll face the Cubs twice, the Brewers twice, the Dodgers twice, plus the Padres and Braves.
The roster issues are just as stark. Hunter Greene, their projected pitching ace, is done for the season. Chase Burns, the arm carrying them now, has already thrown 124 innings in 22 starts - more than he has ever logged in a year - and the Reds are going to have to shut him down soon or move him to the back of the bullpen to manage his workload.
The offense hasn’t helped. Cincinnati is hitting .229, dead last in MLB, and the trouble gets worse when the game tightens up.
Their runners-in-scoring-position average is .211, also last in MLB, though rookie Sal Stewart’s .303 mark helps prop that number up a bit. Too often, those at-bats end the same way: a swinging strikeout or a called third strike.
The strikeouts have piled up everywhere. The Reds are averaging 9.52 per game and have 1,113 overall, the third-most in MLB.
Eugenio Suarez has become the clearest symbol of the problem. Brought back on a $15 million deal to add right-handed power, he has mostly delivered punchouts instead - 23 in his last 41 at-bats and 125 strikeouts in 306 at-bats.
This team does still have one way to score. More than half its runs have come on home runs, with 154 long balls, fifth-most in MLB.
But the overall production is still thin. The Reds have scored only 482 runs, 27th in MLB.
Even the front office has added to the uncertainty. President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall did no operating, as the deadline passed with the Reds keeping eligible free agents Tyler Stephenson, Brady Singer and five others.
At season’s end, Cincinnati can lose all seven. Krall has indicated the club might extend Singer a qualifying offer, which would cost the team $21 million if he accepts.
Stephenson seems likelier to leave without compensation. The Reds discussed an extension with him in spring training, but he wasn’t interested.
The day before the trade deadline, he was shown on TV in tears when asked about the chance of being dealt. After he wasn’t moved, he was asked whether he wanted to stay beyond this season, and he wouldn’t commit.
For now, the list of reasons to keep watching is short. Sal Stewart is one, and Elly De La Cruz is the other.
Stewart, along with St. Louis Cardinals shortstop JJ Wetherholt, is among the top National League Rookie of the Year candidates, and his numbers currently stack up all over Wetherholt’s.
De La Cruz remains appointment viewing because he can do just about everything a player can do. He can flash elite defense or make an error on a routine play. He can launch a dramatic home run or strike out with the bases loaded.
That’s the Reds in a nutshell right now: flashes, frustration and a whole lot of uncertainty. And at this stage, a walk on the wild-card side looks unlikely.
In Other News...
Marty Brennaman Just Raised A Bigger Reds Concern Than The Deadline
The Reds quiet trade deadline might have been the biggest tell yet about where the organization stands, but Marty Brennaman pointed to something larger than a missed opportunity. The longtime former Cincinnati broadcaster weighed in on the lack of deadline movement and framed it as part of a broader concern around president of baseball operations Nick Krall, who has been with the club since 2002 and has been in charge of baseball decisions in recent years.
Cincinnatis recent run has left little room for comfort, and the front offices inaction only sharpened the scrutiny. The Reds are trying to climb out of a disappointing stretch while the playoff picture remains bleak, and Brennamans remarks added a sharper edge to the conversation by suggesting the stakes around Krall go beyond one deadline. [Read more 🡒]
Sal Stewart Has Reds Fans Watching A Rookie Race Get Personal
The Rookie of the Year picture in the National League has turned into a genuine late-season duel, and Sal Stewart has plenty of Reds fans paying close attention. With about a month left, Stewart and Cardinals infielder JJ Wetherholt are tied at the top of the rookie rankings, and the Cincinnati first-year player has built a case with the kind of offensive production that tends to catch voters eyes when the games get bigger.
Stewart has the edge in several key hitting categories, including RBIs, home runs and extra-base hits, while Wetherholt brings a different kind of value with his defense and a stronger WAR mark. It sets up a race that figures to stay tight right down to the finish, with late September performance likely to carry real weight in deciding which rookie separates from the pack. [Read more 🡒]
Hector Rodriguez Faces One Issue That Could Limit His Reds Breakout
The Reds decision to bring up Hector Rodriguez has given the organization another look at one of its better young hitters, and the early signs have been easy to spot. The No. 3 prospect has the talent that made his promotion worth watching, but the first thing evaluators are noticing is less about the results and more about the way he is going about his at-bats.
Rodriguez is still showing the same pitch-selection habits that followed him out of Triple-A Louisville, which is what makes this such an important test for Cincinnati. The Reds have seen promising young hitters run into trouble when their swing decisions get too chase-heavy, and Rodriguez will need to sharpen that part of his game if he wants this call-up to turn into a real breakthrough. [Read more 🡒]