The Cincinnati Reds are trying to turn this weekend into a series win, while the Pittsburgh Pirates are aiming to avoid leaving town with anything less than a split. Cincinnati has already taken two of the first three games, and after Pittsburgh’s win last night in a rain-soaked mess, this afternoon’s finale is set for 1:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.
The matchup on the mound is Chase Burns against Mitch Keller, and both starters come in with very different season profiles.
Burns has been one of Cincinnati’s better arms overall, carrying a 2.40 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 112.2 innings with 128 strikeouts. His last outing against Pittsburgh on June 27 was rough by his standards: he gave up five runs in a game the Reds still won, and it was only the second time all season he had allowed more than two runs.
Even so, the broader trend has been steadier. Over his four starts since then, Burns has allowed six earned runs, though walks have been an issue.
Before that June start against the Pirates, he had fired 12.0 shutout innings across his previous two outings while allowing just four hits.
The matchup data says right-handed hitters have had a hard time doing much of anything against Burns. Lefties have been more effective, posting better numbers across the board and providing most of the power damage he’s allowed. Burns leans heavily on a four-seam fastball and slider, with a changeup mixed in sparingly.
Keller’s season has been more up and down. He opened with a 3.64 ERA through 11 starts, then stumbled badly over the next eight, posting a 7.62 ERA while surrendering 52 hits in 39.0 innings and giving up nine home runs.
Since the All-Star break, though, he has settled back in with two starts and only two runs allowed over 10.1 innings. Against Cincinnati this year, he was excellent on May 1, allowing one run in 7.0 innings, then ran into more trouble at the end of June when the Reds scored four runs against him in 6.0 innings.
Pittsburgh won both games.
Keller’s splits are stark. Right-handed hitters make plenty of contact and draw walks, but they haven’t turned that into much in the way of hits or power.
Lefties, on the other hand, have hit him well and have done real damage. His mix includes a four-seam fastball, two-seamer, cutter, curve, slider and split.
The lineups are set with Elly De La Cruz leading off for Cincinnati and Jake Mangum at the top for Pittsburgh. The Reds are also getting some rehab work underway in the organization.
Brandon Williamson threw two hitless innings in a Double-A Chattanooga rehab outing yesterday but still allowed a run after walking two batters and hitting another. He’s expected to move to Triple-A next week, where Nick Lodolo will join him for his first rehab start since his blister issues resurfaced.
The weather forecast calls for 75 degrees and cloudy skies with a 15% chance of rain.
In the division picture, Milwaukee sits at 69-41 with a 99.9% playoff odds mark, Chicago is 63-48, Pittsburgh is 56-56, St. Louis is 54-57 and Cincinnati is 52-58.
In Other News...
Reds Face A Catching Problem That Makes Cardinals Hard To Ignore
The Reds are staring at a familiar kind of roster problem, only this one comes with a longer fuse. Tyler Stephenson remains the face of the position for now, but without a contract extension in place, Cincinnati has to think beyond the present and start considering what the catching depth chart could look like once his time here runs out. For a team trying to keep its core intact, that kind of uncertainty at such a demanding spot is hard to ignore.
It also explains why St. Louis keeps surfacing in the conversation. The Cardinals have more catching depth than most clubs, which naturally makes them an appealing neighbor on paper, but trading across the division is rarely simple. Any deal for one of their catchers would come at a steep price, and for the Reds, the challenge is not just identifying a fit, but figuring out whether the cost would be worth paying. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Surge Just Made One Deadline Decision Feel Even Bigger
A strong second half has at least put the Reds in a more interesting spot than they were a few weeks ago. Since the All-Star break, Cincinnati has won four series, and the latest reminder came in a lopsided 10-2 win over the Pirates that kept the momentum going. Even with that run, the club still sits 5.5 games back of the final National League Wild Card position, which leaves the next stretch of games carrying real weight for a team trying to decide how hard to push.
Terry Francona has made it clear the trade deadline belongs to the front office, not the dugout, and that distinction matters now more than ever. The organizations willingness to listen on players such as JJ Bleday, Nathaniel Lowe and Dane Myers suggests the Reds may be thinking beyond this season even as the standings leave the door cracked open. For a team that has played its way into the conversation, the deadline could say just as much about the long view as the standings do about the short one. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Deadline Could Bring Elly De La Cruz The Infield Help He Needs
The Reds are headed toward the trade deadline in seller mode, which opens the door to some familiar roster reshuffling in Cincinnati. Players on expiring contracts like Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson could be moved if the front office decides to recoup value, and the bigger question is whether any of those deals help shape the club beyond this season.
One name drawing speculation is Baltimore infielder Jackson Holliday, a young player now on the trade block and the kind of addition that would fit a team trying to support its young core. For Cincinnati, the appeal is obvious: a chance to add more infield stability around Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart while the deadline market takes shape, even if no deal is close to being done. [Read more 🡒]