Emilio Pagán’s decision to opt out of his contract has handed the Reds something they weren’t exactly expecting: a little extra room to work with heading into 2027.
Most around the industry figured Pagán would simply pick up his player option for 2027, collect the $10 million attached to it, and return as Cincinnati’s closer next season. Instead, the right-hander chose free agency over the weekend, opening the door for a possible reunion while also putting himself in line for a bigger deal.
That bigger deal may come with years attached. MLB insider Francys Romero reported that there’s a strong chance Pagán draws multi-year offers this winter. He was a steady part of the Reds’ bullpen over the last three seasons, but the price to bring him back is now expected to climb to around a $12 million average annual value, which is more than Cincinnati should be eager to pay.
The Reds have already lived through enough expensive misfires to know how quickly those decisions can pile up. In the past, the club handed out $45 million to Jeimer Candelario, $64 million to Mike Moustakas, $21 million to Shogo Akiyama, and $7 million to Wil Myers. Pagán, who will be entering his age-36 season, would fit into that same conversation if the Reds chose to chase him at that number.
That’s where the Brewers comparison comes in. Earlier this season, Reds owner Bob Castellini reportedly asked Nick Krall, “why aren’t we the Milwaukee Brewers?” Krall pointed to vetoed trades as part of the answer, but bad contract choices have played their own role in Cincinnati’s struggles.
Milwaukee, for its part, doesn’t appear likely to chase a reliever at that kind of price either. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the Brewers plan to listen to trade offers for Trevor Megill this offseason, with Megill projected to make $8 million through arbitration this winter.
For Cincinnati, the bigger point is simple: there are too many holes to fill to spend that money on one aging reliever. The Reds need a catcher, multiple starting pitchers, multiple relievers, a third baseman(?), a second baseman(?), and probably an outfielder or two. Pagán’s opt-out just gave them $10 million they can push toward those needs instead.
In Other News...
Sal Stewart Just Put The Reds In A Tough Rookie Debate
Sal Stewarts first full season in Cincinnati gave the Reds exactly the kind of middle-of-the-order production they have been chasing, and now it has him in the final three for the National League Rookie of the Year Award. The first baseman played all 162 games, hit .263 with 32 home runs and 112 RBIs, and put himself in some rare company in the process, adding his name to a short list of Reds rookies with 30 or more homers.
The award race is where the conversation gets interesting for Cincinnati. Stewarts year was strong enough to set a franchise rookie RBI record, but he is up against Wetherholt and Benge, who also turned in notable rookie seasons of their own. For the Reds, it is a good problem to have, even if the final vote may come down to how much weight the panel puts on durability, power and the kind of season Stewart just finished. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Suddenly Face A Closer Decision They Can't Miss
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So the front office has a decision to make, and it is not a small one. Cincinnati can try to solve the role from within, shop the free-agent market for a proven closer, or even circle back on Pagn if the price and fit make sense. However it plays out, the Reds cannot afford to treat this like a secondary move, because the bullpen has already shown what happens when the late innings are left unsettled. [Read more 🡒]
Red Sox Trade Buzz Just Raised A Huge Prospect Question
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For the Reds, that kind of rumor always lands in a different register because De La Cruz is the sort of player who changes the ceiling of a roster, not just the depth chart. Any real pursuit would come with a steep cost and a long list of moving parts, which is why the question hanging over this story is less about Bostons interest than about what kind of return would even be enough to get Cincinnati to listen. [Read more 🡒]