The Cincinnati Reds are staring at a frustrating finish, and the big question around the club is whether Terry Francona will be back for another season.
At 63-71, Cincinnati is sitting well short of where it expected to be after opening the year with real momentum. The Reds looked like a team ready to build on last season’s progress, but that hasn’t happened. Instead, the group has slipped backward in 2026, and the numbers reflect it: after going 83-79 in 2025, the Reds have fallen from a .512 winning percentage to .470 this year.
That kind of drop would put a lot of managers in danger. But Francona is not most managers.
Karl Rasmussen of Sports Illustrated said the Reds are “very likely” to keep Francona rather than move on after the season. As Rasmussen wrote, "The Reds have been disappointing this season, but it's hard to imagine they'll move on from Francona, one of MLB's most respected managers, after just two seasons," Rasmussen writes. "With one more year left on his contract, Francona will very likely be in charge in Cincinnati in '27 if he wants to be."
Francona’s standing matters here. The 67-year-old is a two-time World Series champion and a three-time Manager of the Year award winner, and that kind of resume gives him a cushion most skippers simply don’t get. The fact that he’s under contract through 2027 only strengthens the case that Cincinnati will let this play out at least one more year.
There is still a path where the Reds eventually make a change, but that would likely come later. If year three also goes off track, the club could part ways without much complication once next season ends.
For now, though, the expectation is clear: the Reds are more likely to keep Francona than fire him. The only real wrinkle is what Francona himself wants to do, since it would not be a huge shock if he chose to step away from baseball.
So while the season has been a letdown, Cincinnati’s next move may be less about reaction and more about patience.
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