The Cincinnati Reds are staring at a rotation problem this offseason, and one possible answer has already surfaced in a new free-agent projection.
MLB Trade Rumors released its annual top 50 free agents list on Tuesday, complete with contract estimates and landing spots, and Steve Adams has the Reds signing former No. 1 overall pick and 2025 All-Star Casey Mize.
Adams projects Mize to get a two-year, $28 million deal with an opt-out clause.
For Cincinnati, the fit is obvious enough. The Reds finished 2026 at 75-87, and starting pitching is one of the biggest items on their to-do list as they try to reshape the roster for 2027. Hunter Greene is working back from Tommy John surgery, while Brady Singer is headed into free agency, leaving the club with more uncertainty than answers in the rotation.
Mize, 29, is the kind of arm that will draw attention because the track record is both encouraging and messy. He looked like he was turning a corner with the Detroit Tigers in 2026, putting up a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts before a trade sent him to the San Diego Padres.
Once he got to San Diego, the wheels came off. Mize posted a 7.46 ERA in 10 starts with the Padres and wrapped up the year with a 4.32 ERA overall, which leaves teams trying to figure out which version is the real one.
Still, there’s plenty to like if you’re Cincinnati. Mize was an All-Star in 2025, and the idea is that his rough stretch after the trade was more of a blip than a warning sign. At the projected price, he would give the Reds a chance to add a pitcher who has already shown he can handle big-league innings and still has room to offer more.
The concern, of course, is that the injury history and the late-season collapse are real. But the upside is real too.
And for a Reds team that needs help on the mound, taking that swing could make sense - as long as it’s not the only major move they make this winter. There are too many question marks in place for Cincinnati to stop with just one addition.
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