The Cincinnati Reds have some real work to do on the mound this offseason, and the cleanest path forward might come from an in-state neighbor that suddenly looks willing to listen.
With Hunter Greene out for all of 2027 and Brady Singer potentially leaving, the rotation picture has thinned fast. As things stand, Cincinnati is staring at a group led by Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo, plus a pile of arms that haven’t proven anything yet.
At minimum, the Reds need to sort out the fourth and fifth spots. But after Abbott and Lodolo both went through extended rough patches in 2026, the club may want more than just depth - it may need someone with real upside.
The free-agent route doesn’t look especially friendly. The market is thin, and even middling starters are going to cost plenty. That makes the trade market the likelier answer, and Tanner Bibee could be sitting right there on the other side of Ohio.
Cleveland’s handling of Bibee in 2026 raised more than a few eyebrows. He opened the year as the Guardians’ Opening Day starter, then barely registered in the postseason, logging only 1/3 of an inning in relief even as Cleveland pushed the Tampa Bay Rays to six games in the ALCS. If the Guardians couldn’t find meaningful October work for him, it naturally invites questions about how central he still is to their plans.
Still, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said the organization hasn’t shifted its view of Bibee, who signed a five-year, $48 million extension before the 2025 season.
"He was our rock in that rotation, and I don't see that role changing in '27. He's going to be a big part of our team and a big part of our rotation moving forward," Vogt told reporters during Cleveland's post-mortem press conference.
Even with that public backing, Vogt admitted Bibee had his issues in 2026 and dealt with mechanics at times. The numbers tell the same story.
Bibee made 33 starts and threw 188 innings, but he finished with a 4.36 ERA and a career-worst 7.09 K/9. His average fastball velocity also slipped from 94.4 miles per hour in 2025 to 93.9 miles per hour this year.
The postseason explanation didn’t exactly calm anyone down, either. Vogt’s reasoning amounted to saying that if Cleveland had made it to the World Series, the team probably would have found a way to use Bibee. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Bibee’s 2026 followed a 2025 season that was also a step back. He worked 182⅓ innings that year and posted a 4.24 ERA, well below the 2.98 he put up in 2023 and the 3.47 he turned in in 2024.
The money is only going to get louder from here. Bibee made $4.4 million in 2026, then is set for $7.4 million in 2027, $10.4 million in 2028, and $21.4 million in 2029.
His contract also includes a $21 million club option for 2030. Cleveland’s payroll sits at $74.5 million, which ranks 30th, so every dollar matters there.
Cincinnati’s labor payroll was nearly twice that at $128 million.
For the Reds, Bibee’s 2026 production would work fine as a fifth starter. If he gets back to his earlier form, he offers something better than that - a pitcher capable of slotting near the front of a rotation.
Vogt may have said all the right things publicly, but the Guardians’ decisions tell a different story. If there’s a chance Bibee is available, Nick Krall and the Reds should be ready to make the call.
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