The Cincinnati Reds’ starting rotation is getting buried by one glaring problem in 2026: it’s not finishing hitters.
That’s the stat that tells the story best, and it helps explain why a staff that’s usually one of the club’s strengths has looked so shaky. Injuries have certainly played a role, but the deeper issue has been what happens once Reds pitchers get to two strikes. That’s where the rotation has fallen apart.
This is supposed to be an organizational calling card. The Reds have made a habit of developing starting pitching in recent years, and the group has featured names like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns.
Normally, that pipeline gives Cincinnati a real edge. This season, though, the results have gone in the other direction.
The injury list alone is enough to slow any rotation. Greene has missed nearly the whole year.
In fact, Jose Trevino has made more appearances on the mound in 2026 than Greene has. Lodolo has dealt with his usual blister issues, Lowder has missed time, and Brandon Williamson has also been out for a significant stretch.
That’s a lot to absorb. But the numbers with two strikes show the trouble goes beyond just availability.
According to Charlie Goldsmith, the Reds have been respectable or better in a few different advanced areas in recent seasons. In 2022 and 2023, they were solid in chase rate percentage and whiff percentage with two strikes.
In 2024, they were excellent at whiff rate on pitches outside the zone. In 2025, they got plenty of swing-and-miss in the strike zone.
This year has been a different story.
The Reds’ starters rank 27th in MLB in two-strike strikeout percentage and 28th in opponent OPS with two strikes. They’re also second-worst in MLB in average exit velocity with two strikes. Not good.
What makes that especially striking is that Chase Burns has been excellent. He’s one of the league’s elite starters at getting batters to chase, and without him the Reds would likely be sitting dead last in these categories. But outside of Burns, Cincinnati’s starters simply haven’t been sharp enough when they get ahead in the count.
If the Reds want to be competitive next year and beyond, that has to change.
In Other News...
Reds Pitching Collapse Is Making Brewers Dominance Even Harder To Watch
The Reds keep finding new ways to make a bad stretch look worse, and the latest chapter came in Milwaukee. Cincinnati has been outscored 34-1 in recent games, capped by a 20-0 loss to the Brewers that went down as the worst shutout defeat in franchise history. Even with Matt McLain scratched and Ke'Bryan Hayes and Juan Brito making defensive adjustments, the Reds could not stop the bleeding, and the sight of the division leader pulling away has only made the slide sting more.
Saturday brought a different kind of frustration, with the offense showing some life in a 13-9 loss while Hunter Greene had a rough outing and Eugenio Suarez went deep. The problem for Cincinnati is that one spirited night at the plate does little to change the bigger picture as the club approaches elimination from playoff contention. Chase Burns is lined up for the next start, and the Reds are trying to stabilize things before the seasons final stretch gets away from them entirely. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Pitching Collapse Just Hit An Alarming New Low
A bad stretch can usually be explained away by one rough inning, one untimely error or one tired bullpen night. What the Reds are living through right now is something far more alarming. Their 13-9 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday extended a historic collapse on the mound, with Cincinnati getting rocked again after a pair of blowouts had already sent the staff into dangerous territory. Brady Singers outing only added to the damage, as he lasted four innings and gave up eight runs while the Brewers kept piling on.
The bigger issue is the scale of the damage, which now feels impossible to ignore in the context of a season that still has plenty of baseball left. Milwaukee put up a franchise-record 33 runs across two games against the Reds, a jarring number even by the standards of a bad week. Cincinnati has to find a way to stop the bleeding soon, because the rotation and bullpen are no longer just struggling - they are making the wrong kind of history. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Avoided A Brewers Sweep Despite One Lingering Pitching Concern
Chase Burns took another step through his new limited role Sunday, working three innings in his second start since the Reds scaled things back. The right-hander allowed two runs on a home run and still struck out five, a short outing that fit the plan but also kept Cincinnatis pitching picture front and center as it tried to stop Milwaukee from completing a sweep.
The Reds got enough help to pull it out 4-3, with Eugenio Suarez and Elly De La Cruz supplying key offense and Brandon Williamson doing his part in relief before the Brewers pushed across a tying run in the seventh. Cincinnati still escaped with the win, but the way the game unfolded left the club with another reminder that the middle innings and the late-inning workload remain worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]