The Reds head back to Great American Ball Park on Friday night with a tough one waiting for them: Sandy Alcantara on the mound for Miami, and Chase Burns trying to answer after a rough outing last weekend.
Cincinnati is 58-62 after a short road trip, while the Marlins arrive at 62-60 and still very much alive in the NL Wild Card chase, sitting 2.5 games out of the third and final spot. First pitch is set for 6:10 PM EDT.
Alcantara already saw the Reds once this season, and it went the way a lot of his starts tend to go when he’s locked in. Back in early April in Miami, he worked into the ninth inning, threw 8.1 innings, and gave up just two runs on three hits with two walks and six strikeouts. He didn’t get the decision that day, though Cincinnati eventually won 6-3 in 10 innings.
Even with his strikeout rate drifting down from the 22% to 24% range he used to live in, Alcantara is still getting plenty of results. His career strikeout rate sits at 20.8%, and his season-by-season mark has dipped from 19.8% in 2023 to 19.0% this year.
He still ranks 13th among National League pitchers in strikeouts in 2026, and the bigger constant has been his command. Alcantara’s career walk rate is 7.7%, and that number is down to 6.2% in 2026.
Add in a career ground-ball rate of 49.5%, and the profile is easy to understand.
The split numbers back that up, too. Against right-handed hitters, Alcantara has held opponents to a .259 average and .304 on-base percentage with 66 hits in 274 plate appearances.
Lefties have done a little less damage, hitting .230 with a .290 OBP across 400 plate appearances. His arsenal is built around a 97.5 mph four-seam fastball, along with a 97.3 mph two-seamer and a 90.9 mph changeup, while the cutter, sweeper, slider and curve all mix in behind them.
Burns, meanwhile, is looking to steady himself after allowing five runs on six hits in 5.1 innings against the Nationals last weekend. He struck out six and walked three in that start, and now gets a Miami lineup he has not faced before.
What stands out most with Burns is how often he gets the ball in the air. His ground-ball rate is 37.0%, well below the major league average of 44.1% and in the 20th percentile among MLB pitchers.
His fly-ball rate is 28.9%, above the MLB average of 24.2%. Despite that, he’s given up only 13 home runs this season, which lines up with the kind of swing-and-miss stuff he brings, especially from a slider that has produced a 51.6% whiff rate.
Burns has been more effective against righties than lefties. Right-handed hitters are batting .187 against him, while lefties are at .217.
The home run total is lopsided too, with two allowed to righties and 11 to lefties. He leans heavily on a 97.6 mph four-seam fastball and a 90.2 mph slider, with the changeup used sparingly.
In roster news, the Reds sent Tony Santillian to Louisville on Friday to begin a rehab assignment. He has been on the injured list since June 26 with an oblique strain.
The standings show Cincinnati still trying to climb out of a deep hole in the division picture. Milwaukee leads at 75-47, Chicago is 71-51, St.
Louis is 61-60, Cincinnati sits at 58-62, and Pittsburgh is 59-64. Fangraph’s playoff odds give the Reds just 0.6%.
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