The Reds have a familiar kind of problem on their hands: too many shortstops, not enough certainty.
Cincinnati has spent years piling up middle-infield talent, especially at short, and the group keeps getting more crowded. Edwin Arroyo is the name most people know best.
Tyson Lewis has the loudest tools. Steele Hall, still just 18, is already drawing buzz.
And then there’s Leo Balcazar, the one sitting a little farther from the spotlight in Chattanooga.
Balcazar is the club’s No. 15 prospect, and he’s the one making things interesting right now. Signed out of Venezuela for just $100,000, the 22-year-old has long outplayed the expectations attached to his bonus. He got off to a fast start in his second look at Double-A this season, and he’s already up to nine home runs, putting him on pace to sail past his previous career high of 12, which he set last year between Dayton and Chattanooga.
But the power surge comes with a catch.
As Balcazar has chased more damage at the plate, the strikeouts have climbed back into the picture. He’s striking out 20.8% of the time, up from 13.4% last season, and that extra swing-for-the-fences approach has also dragged his batting average down from .263 to .243. His slugging percentage hasn’t really moved much either, leaving him with a 98 wRC+ after posting a 106 mark a year ago.
That’s the tricky part: Balcazar still doesn’t have enough power to live this way full-time. At five-foot-10 and 190 pounds, the idea that more pop is just waiting to arrive doesn’t really fit the profile.
The better path is pretty clear from here. He needs to choose his moments to hunt homers, then dial it back and lean on contact the rest of the time.
If he can’t make that adjustment, his ceiling gets a lot harder to reach.
And if that happens, the pressure shifts to the rest of the Reds’ shortstop crop.
Arroyo has already shown what he can do when things are clicking, slashing .323/.383/.562 with 11 homers at Louisville before getting the call when Elly De La Cruz got hurt. His slow start in the majors doesn’t erase that. The bigger question is what he ultimately becomes: an impact middle infielder or more of a utility-type piece.
Lewis brings the flash, but the production hasn’t matched the scouting report yet. The 20-year-old is striking out at a 34.2% clip in Daytona and is hitting just .228/.294/.344.
Hall, meanwhile, has looked very impressive in the Arizona Complex League, though he’s still at the stage where a lot can change as he moves through the system.
So the Reds are still waiting on one of these bets to cash. Ideally, one of them becomes De La Cruz’s long-term double-play partner.
Maybe one becomes his eventual replacement. Either way, Cincinnati has loaded up on shortstop talent and now needs at least one of these players to turn promise into a real answer.
If Balcazar doesn’t clean up the approach, that burden only grows heavier for Arroyo, Lewis and Hall.
In Other News...
Carlos Jorge Is Forcing A Reds Decision They Can't Delay
Carlos Jorge has turned Double-A Chattanooga into a proving ground, and the Reds cant ignore the way hes changed the conversation around his future. After a rougher stretch in High-A knocked him down the clubs prospect ladder, the outfielder has rebuilt his stock with a more controlled approach at the plate, better contact and far fewer empty swings, all while producing enough impact to matter in games.
The next step now feels unavoidable: Louisville. Cincinnati needs to see whether Jorge can carry this version of himself to Triple-A, because a strong finish there would force a real offseason roster debate and bring his name into 40-man planning before the winter gets complicated. For a player who was in danger of fading, Jorge has done more than resurface - he has put the Reds on the clock. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Are Quietly Watching An Old Mets Trade Turn Into A Heist
A 2022 trade that barely registered at the time is looking a lot more meaningful now, at least from Cincinnatis side. The deal sent Tyler Naquin and Phillip Diehl to the Mets, and the Reds have spent the last few years watching the return they got in that swap develop in a way that makes the transaction look far more productive than anyone expected.
The timing only adds to the contrast. While Cincinnatis side of the ledger has seen real progress in the minors, New York has been fighting through a rough season and a rotation that has struggled to hold up under the weight of disappointment. For the Reds, it is the kind of old front-office move that can quietly gain value over time, especially when the team on the other end is sliding and the prospects are moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Reach A Breaking Point With No More Time To Waste
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There is at least some hope on the roster side. Elly De La Cruz, Emilio Pagn and Hunter Greene are all working their way back from injuries, and the rotation has started to stabilize after a shaky stretch. But the offense remains the real drag, leaving Cincinnati with too many games in which the pitching gives it a chance and the lineup fails to cash it in. If the Reds are going to change the tone of this season, it will have to happen soon, because the margin for error is shrinking with every series. [Read more 🡒]