The Cincinnati Reds have a handful of prospects who could force their way into the conversation over the next year or two, and Carter Graham is one of the names drawing the most attention this fall.
With the Arizona Fall League underway, Graham is among the Reds prospects worth tracking closely. TJStats’ Danny Barrand recently put him on a list of the league’s top players to watch and went even further, labeling him a must watch prospect after his breakout summer.
“Carter Graham broke out in a massive way in 2026, posting a .986 OPS and a .404 xwOBA, and his level-by-level xwOBA put him in a bucket that has a >75% chance of making the majors,” Barrand wrote. “Overall, Graham is just a threat at the plate; he whiffed more in Double-A Chattanooga but not to a point that was atrocious.
His 113 mph maxEV is plus, and so are his other power metrics. He has plus swing decisions, and the damage metrics are incredible.
Graham has the look of a guy who posts some solid big league seasons just hitting.”
For most of his pro career, Graham had been viewed as more of an ordinary prospect. That changed in a big way this summer, when he put together the kind of season that turns heads across an organization.
He hit .300/.421/.565 with 29 home runs, 31 doubles and 93 RBIs in the minors this season. The jump came with a more selective approach at the plate, as he swung less and made that decision pay off by seeing fewer than 60 percent strikes. That approach helped him draw walks more than 13 percent of the time while staying away from chases outside the zone.
One other piece of his profile stands out: his pull air percentage sits at nearly 16 percent, a strong number that helps explain the power production.
Graham also exited a recent Arizona Fall League game with an injury, making him a player to keep a close eye on throughout the fall.
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Castellini made clear that any decision on De La Cruz, whether it involves a contract extension or something else, has to fit into the franchises broader plan. That is where the tension starts to build for Cincinnati, because De La Cruzs value is soaring at exactly the same time his cost is about to rise, leaving the Reds to weigh whether they can keep him in the fold on their terms or whether the market around him becomes too difficult to ignore. [Read more 🡒]