The Reds’ 2027 reset can’t stop at Nick Krall.
If Cincinnati decides this season is the end of the line for its baseball operations boss, that move would come with plenty of justification. Krall has been in the organization since 2002 and has run the baseball side since September 2023, so he knows the club, the market, and the constraints better than almost anyone. He also owns a roster that has produced very little outside of Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, and Chase Burns.
Those three young players make up less than two percent of the Reds’ payroll, which is why this isn’t just a budget story. It’s a story about how the club has used the money it did have, and how badly those resources have been spent.
But Krall isn’t the only name that should be under the microscope.
The Reds’ offense has been bad for a while, and the decline has become hard to ignore. That points directly to hitting coach Chris Valaika, who was Terry Francona’s first hire when he arrived in October of 2024. Since then, Cincinnati has lived near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, and over the last two seasons the production has only slipped further.
In 2025 the Reds were usually below average. In 2026, they’ve fallen close to the bottom in almost everything except home runs.
That power total stands out, but not in a flattering way. Great American Ball Park helps, sure, but the bigger issue is that the offense looks like it has one idea and one idea only: swing hard and hope it leaves the yard.
That kind of profile reflects a team with no real plan at the plate. And when the roster hasn’t changed much from year to year, the steady slide becomes impossible to dismiss as a fluke.
It gets even harder to excuse when the supposed bright spots don’t lift the group as a whole. De La Cruz is in the middle of the best overall offensive season of his career, and Stewart’s full-time arrival has added another promising bat.
Yet the baseline around them hasn’t risen. Instead, the rest of the lineup has regressed.
The individual numbers tell the story. TJ Friedl, a veteran outfielder with a career 99 wRC+, posted a 109 mark last season but has dropped all the way to 36 this year.
Noelvi Marte went from 101 a year ago to 52 this season. Matt McLain was expected to rebound a year removed from surgery, but he’s actually been a little worse, falling from a 77 wRC+ last year to 75 now.
There has been one notable bounce-back: JJ Bleday has moved from a disappointing 90 wRC+ in 2025 to 115 in 2026. But that isn’t really a revelation, since he had already shown he could hit at that level before arriving in Cincinnati.
Elsewhere, the picture is murkier. Edwin Arroyo tore the cover off the ball in Louisville, then struggled badly against major league pitching.
Whether that’s on Valaika, Arroyo, or just rookie nerves is hard to sort out. Hector Rodriguez’s performance since his call-up will be worth watching for the same reason.
The Reds can’t keep living in the league’s offensive basement. They need better talent, yes, but they also need to get more out of the players already in the room. If Cincinnati decides this is the time for a reset, Valaika should be part of it alongside Krall.
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Reds May End Up Regretting One Deadline Gamble With JJ Bleday
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That approach could carry real risk with JJ Bleday, who looked like a strong asset earlier in the season before his bat cooled noticeably after June. Because he remains a controllable player for several more seasons, the Reds still have time to bank on a rebound, but every additional stretch of quiet offense makes the decision to hold him look a little more precarious. [Read more 🡒]