With the trade deadline approaching, the Reds are staring at a tough reality: if they’re going to sell, they can’t afford to do it halfway. The veterans on expiring deals are obvious trade chips, but the bigger question is whether Cincinnati is willing to move beyond the easy stuff and make the kind of deal that actually changes the shape of the organization.
That’s where the conversation gets uncomfortable. The Reds have a few players under control who could bring back more than the usual deadline throw-ins, and that matters because the farm system is not in a position to carry the load. Baseball America’s July update dropped Cincinnati from 19th in the preseason rankings to 25th, a slide that says plenty about where the pipeline stands right now.
The system’s top-end talent is thin. Cincinnati has just two top-100 prospects: Alfredo Duno at No. 51 and Edwin Arroyo at No.
- Arroyo is close to graduating, and the source material describes his production as very underwhelming, which leaves Duno and a long list of lottery tickets behind him.
There’s also a shortage of upper-level pitching depth, according to Baseball America, and the position-player picture isn’t much cleaner. The Reds’ best high-end talent is packed almost entirely at shortstop, and that concentration is becoming a problem.
That’s why the idea of trying to buy controllable big leaguers while also selling feels like a tricky path to walk. Clubs that are willing to trade for Cincinnati’s rentals usually aren’t eager to give up players with meaningful control unless those guys have disappointed. And if the control coming back only runs for two more years or less, the payoff may not be enough to matter.
If the Reds are serious about restocking, they may need to think bigger. Moving only the veterans on expiring contracts would bring back some lottery tickets and boom-or-bust prospects, but probably not the kind of talent this system needs. Players with real value would have to be in play.
Spencer Steer is one example of the kind of player that could bring back a strong return. Nick Lodolo is another, especially while he’s on the IL with yet another blister injury. Those are the sorts of pieces that could help replenish the organization, even if they’re not the kind of untouchable core piece represented by Elly De La Cruz.
And that’s the bind Cincinnati is in. A cash-strapped club can’t keep missing on the margins, because the farm system has to keep feeding the big-league roster.
Right now, it isn’t. That’s why the Reds may need to choose a more aggressive deadline route if they want to avoid making a bad situation worse.
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