When it comes to addressing their two biggest needs this offseason - a middle-of-the-order bat and a high-leverage bullpen arm - the Cincinnati Reds are staring down a tough financial reality. The free-agent market isn’t doing them any favors, and now, with the prices being set by early signings, the Reds may be forced to make a decision that’s less about preference and more about practicality.
Let’s start with the obvious: a true power bat in free agency would likely devour most - if not all - of the Reds’ available payroll space. And given the cost of elite sluggers on the open market, that might not even be enough.
On the flip side, targeting a reliever seemed like the more budget-friendly move. But that assumption took a hit when Devin Williams landed a three-year, $51 million deal with the New York Mets.
That’s a steep price for any reliever, let alone one coming off a rocky season. Williams, once a dominant closer with the Milwaukee Brewers, struggled during his 2025 stint with the Yankees and lost his closing role.
Yet he still secured a deal that carries an average annual value north of $17 million - a figure that represents more than half of the Reds’ estimated spending power this winter. Cincinnati reportedly had interest in Williams, but not at that number.
And understandably so.
Williams’ contract, along with Ryan Helsley’s two-year, $28 million agreement with Baltimore, has effectively set the market for top-tier closers - and it’s a market that may have priced the Reds out.
So where does that leave Cincinnati?
The remaining big-name closers - think Robert Suarez and Edwin Díaz - are likely well outside the Reds’ financial comfort zone. Others, like Kenley Jansen, Pete Fairbanks, and Luke Weaver, bring with them concerns around age, injuries, or inconsistent performance. Kyle Finnegan could be a logical fit, but the Tigers are reportedly making a strong push to retain him.
That narrows the field considerably, and it might push the Reds toward a more familiar path.
One name that continues to make sense is Emilio Pagán. He’s not just a known quantity - he’s also been open about his desire to return to Cincinnati.
That kind of mutual interest is rare in free agency, and the Reds would be wise to explore it seriously. Look at what the Braves did with Raisel Iglesias - sometimes the best move is keeping the guy who already fits your clubhouse and your bullpen.
If a reunion with Pagán doesn’t materialize, though, the Reds may be forced to turn inward.
Tony Santillan is the most intriguing in-house candidate. He’s got the stuff, he’s got the mentality, and he’s shown he can handle pressure.
Last season, he logged over 73 innings, with 135 of his plate appearances coming in high-leverage spots. That’s not nothing.
If Santillan can grow into the closer role, the Reds could have a cost-controlled solution locked in through 2028.
But that’s a big “if.”
If Santillan doesn’t seize the role - or if the bullpen falters without a proven closer anchoring it - this could be the offseason the Reds look back on with regret. The opportunity is there to solidify the back end of the bullpen, but with prices soaring and options dwindling, Cincinnati is walking a tightrope.
The front office has decisions to make. They’re not easy ones, and they won’t come cheap. But if the Reds want to keep pace in a competitive NL Central, they’ll need to find a way - whether that’s by bringing back Pagán, trusting Santillan, or getting creative in a market that’s quickly moving beyond their budget.