The Reds and Tyler Stephenson just went the distance in arbitration, and the catcher came out on top-winning his case and securing a $6.8 million salary for 2026. But while Stephenson got the raise, the bigger story might be what this says about Cincinnati’s long-term plans.
The team let a relatively minor $250,000 difference escalate into a full-blown hearing. That’s not nothing.
In fact, it might be a sign that the Reds are bracing for life beyond Stephenson after 2026.
For now, though, Stephenson remains a key piece of the puzzle in Cincinnati. Last season wasn’t his best-injuries took a toll, and his production dipped.
His strikeout rate ballooned to 33.9%, and at times, he looked like a shell of the hitter Reds fans have come to expect. But dig a little deeper, and the underlying metrics tell a more encouraging story.
Despite the struggles, Stephenson still ranked in the 98th percentile in launch angle sweet spot rate, the 90th percentile in barrel percentage, and the 84th percentile in hard-hit rate. Translation: when he made contact, he was still hitting the ball with authority.
That’s the kind of profile you bet on bouncing back-especially if he can stay healthy. Catchers who can hit are a rare commodity in today’s game, and Stephenson has shown he can be one of the better offensive backstops in the league when he’s right. Which makes the Reds’ hesitance to lock him up long-term all the more puzzling.
The lack of urgency in extending Stephenson has left Cincinnati’s catching future in a tricky spot. Sure, there’s still time to work out a deal before he hits free agency after the 2026 season, but the clock is ticking-and the recent arbitration battle could complicate things. If the relationship has cooled, and Stephenson believes he can command more on the open market (which, given the scarcity of quality catchers, he likely can), the Reds may have missed their window to sign him at a team-friendly price.
And without a clear successor ready to step in, that’s a problem.
Top prospect Alfredo Duno has been turning heads in the system, but he’s just 20 years old and coming off a full season at Single-A Daytona. He’s talented, no doubt, but expecting him to be ready to take over the starting job in 2027 would be a stretch-especially after injury setbacks in 2024. The upside is there, but the timeline isn’t.
Then there’s Jose Trevino, who’s under contract through 2027 with a club option for 2028. He’s a seasoned veteran, a former All-Star, and owns a Platinum Glove.
But offensively, he’s limited. He hasn’t posted an OPS north of .700 since 2020, and while his defense still plays, it’s tough to pencil him in as a long-term starter without some serious offensive support around him.
As a backup? He’s solid.
As a bridge starter? That’s a gamble.
So here’s where the Reds find themselves: Do they pay up to keep Stephenson, knowing it may take a market-rate deal to do so? Or do they try to patch the position together with Trevino and short-term options while waiting on Duno to develop?
Neither path is ideal. And the frustrating part for Reds fans is that this situation didn’t have to be so murky.
Had the team acted earlier-before Stephenson got within striking distance of free agency-they might’ve been able to lock him in at a discount. Instead, they’re staring down a tough decision, with few appealing answers.
For now, Stephenson remains a central figure in the Reds’ plans. But unless something changes soon, the clock is ticking-and Cincinnati’s catching future is anything but certain.