The Cincinnati Reds made a savvy move this offseason, re-signing Emilio Pagán before the reliever market fully took off-and now, it’s looking like they beat the rush in a big way.
Pagán wasn’t a lock to return to Cincinnati. In fact, the Reds briefly explored a bigger swing, showing interest in Devin Williams.
Williams sat in a bit of a no-man’s-land in free agency-not quite at the top tier with the Edwin Díaz types, but clearly a step above the second-tier arms like Pagán. That flirtation made it unclear which direction the Reds were leaning.
But when the dust settled, Cincinnati circled back to Pagán-and that decision may have saved them a serious chunk of change.
Williams ended up signing a three-year, $51 million deal with the Mets. That’s elite closer money, putting him in the same financial neighborhood as Robert Suarez (three years, $45 million) and not far behind Díaz (three years, $69 million). That’s a price point the Reds simply weren’t going to reach-and frankly, didn’t need to.
Instead, they locked in Pagán to what’s shaping up to be one of the more team-friendly deals among relievers this winter. Depending on whether he exercises an opt-out after 2026, the contract is either a two-year, $20 million deal or a one-year, $10 million commitment. Either way, it comes in just under the two-year, $22 million projection that had been floated for him-and well below what the market ended up doing for comparable arms.
To put it in perspective: Luke Weaver, another former Red, got the exact deal Pagán was expected to command-two years, $22 million-from the Mets. Weaver had a solid bounce-back year with the Yankees in 2024, but he faded hard in the second half, posting a 4.40 ERA, and had a rough go in the postseason. Despite that, he still landed the full projected value.
Then there’s Raisel Iglesias, yet another ex-Red, who re-signed with the Braves for one year and $16 million. That’s a hefty one-year payout for a reliever who showed some signs of decline last season and was part of a Braves bullpen that struggled down the stretch.
But maybe the most telling comparison comes from north of the border. The Blue Jays gave Tyler Rogers-who’s been a rock-solid setup man, but not a closer-a three-year, $37 million deal that could grow to $49 million over four years if his 2029 option vests.
Rogers is dependable, no doubt, but he’s not the guy you hand the ball to in the ninth. That kind of money for a non-closer puts the Pagán deal in a whole new light.
Had the Reds waited, Pagán likely would’ve had the leverage to push past that $22 million projection. But by moving early, Cincinnati got their guy at a discount-and locked in a proven late-inning arm without getting caught in the market’s rising tide.
In a winter where bullpen prices are climbing fast, the Reds didn’t just make a good deal-they made the right one at the right time.