Matt McLain’s bat has been a headache for the Reds, but Terry Francona isn’t ready to hit the panic button.
Speaking with reporters on Thursday, Cincinnati’s manager made it clear he still sees enough in McLain to keep giving him runway, even after another uneven offensive season. The second baseman’s defense has stayed strong - he’s in the 89th percentile in Outs Above Average - but the production at the plate has been rough. His batting run value sits at -16, which lands in the second percentile.
Francona didn’t dance around the issue when asked how long a team should keep waiting on a player like McLain.
"He's a very good base runner,“ Francona told Mike Petraglia. "He's a very good second baseman.
He hits the ball out of the ballpark. He has not been hitting for a very good average.
Okay, do you just send him to Triple-A or release him? No, I don't think so.
I think if you think a guy has got it in there, you gotta show some patience. And the other thing is, too, is give me somebody better.
If you don't, you're gonna make mistakes by pulling the plug too soon."
That patience comes with real questions attached. McLain, now 27, has never really put together consistent offense over the last two seasons.
He had a promising rookie year in 2023, then dealt with a shoulder injury that required surgery in 2024. Shoulder injuries can take time, but the results still haven’t stabilized.
His batting average has dropped 35 points, from .220 to .185, and he’s carrying a .615 OPS with a 28 percent strikeout rate and a 26 percent chase rate.
The power is still there, at least. McLain has hit 15 home runs in each of the last two seasons. Francona said that when McLain is able to square up fastballs, the rest of his game tends to follow.
"With him, when he steps on the fastball, everything else seems to fall into place," Francona said, "and he's capable for sure. He just hasn't always done it, and it's in there, though. I really believe it's in there."
The timing only makes the decision harder for Cincinnati. McLain is heading into his second year of arbitration this offseason after reaching Super-Two status last year, which means he’s about to get more expensive. The Reds also may have a possible alternative in Juan Brito, though the sample is still tiny.
Brito has looked comfortable since being promoted when rosters expanded at the beginning of the month. In that short stretch, he’s hitting .361/.385/.583 with four extra-base hits and 10 RBI, while holding his own defensively at second base.
Cincinnati acquired him from the Guardians for cash considerations at the trade deadline. He hasn’t been an elite minor league hitter, but he does have a couple of seasons with an OPS above .800 and a 20-homer year on his resume.
The defense would be a step down from McLain, though Brito brings decent range and a good throwing arm.
Francona’s bigger point was about roster construction as much as any one player. He said the game has made it pretty clear that offense alone can’t carry a player if the defense isn’t there.
"It's kind of been proven that when you're (chasing offense)" Francona said, "and we're always chasing offense, but that's a hard way to play. I think we were having meetings.
I think it was yesterday. Unless you're an elite offensive player, you better be able to catch the ball.
That's how I feel, and there are different opinions all over the game, which is why the game's so good. But when you're chasing offense, you better be a really good hitter if you're not going to catch the ball, because it hurts your team."
That tension shows up all over the Reds’ roster. The club has four players with more than 200 plate appearances hitting under .200, and two hitters under .165 with the same plate-appearance total.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is owed $30 million through 2029, with a $12 million club option for 2030. McLain is getting pricier, Elly De La Cruz is entering his first year of arbitration, and there are rumors that Brady Singer could be offered a $23 million qualifying offer.
For the Reds, the problem isn’t just McLain. It’s the bigger question of how much offense this group can afford to chase, and whether the front office believes this is a team built to win now. If not, Nick Krall has to treat the rest of the roster with that reality in mind - especially if Cincinnati wants Francona around beyond his current contract.
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