Baseball America’s newest prospect rankings delivered a blunt message to the Reds: the farm system has slipped, and the pitching cupboard looks thin.
Cincinnati fell from No. 19 to No. 25 in BA’s latest list, with Alfredo Duno at No. 51 and Edwin Arroyo at No. 81 as the only Reds prospects inside the top 100. BA did give the organization’s minor-league catching depth strong marks, but the praise stopped there.
The bigger concern was the arms. Baseball America pointed to pitching depth as the Reds’ clearest weakness and tied part of that drop to injuries for Ty Floyd, Luke Holman, and Hunter Hollan. Those three pitchers have combined for just 28⅓ innings this season, and Holman is currently on the 60-day IL.
That should put the front office on alert. With the MLB Draft only a couple days away and the trade deadline coming fast, Cincinnati’s path is pretty clear: add pitching prospects wherever it can.
Chase Petty is now the Reds’ top pitching prospect, but that comes with a catch. The organization still believes he can develop into a big-league starter, yet his recent move to the bullpen raises real questions about where he fits long term.
After Petty, the list gets even murkier. Sheng-En Lin, Mason Morris, Edgar Colon, and Stharlin Torres are all in the system, but none are close to being Major League-ready. Jose Franco, Julian Aguiar, and Jose Acuña could help down the road, though all three come with major question marks.
That’s why the deadline should be about upside on the mound. If the Reds are dealing players such as Brock Burke, Nathaniel Lowe, and Caleb Ferguson, the return needs to include pitching prospects.
The same logic should carry into the draft, where Cincinnati holds the No. 18 pick in Round 1. The best arm available ought to be the target, and names like Cameron Flukey, Hunter Dietz, and Liam Peterson could be in play there.
The Reds still can’t ignore the rest of the system, but a strength has turned into a weakness in a hurry. The quick rise of Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder to the Major League roster is a major reason why.
With Nick Lodolo sure to draw some attention at the trade deadline, Cincinnati has to focus on rebuilding its rotation from within the organization.
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McLain has already been moved down in the batting order, and the numbers have only deepened the concern about where this is headed. For a club that has fallen from a fast start into last place in the NL Central, every at-bat matters, and the Reds now have to weigh whether a reset is the best way to get McLain back on track before the seasons next roster decisions start to pile up. [Read more 🡒]
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There are other names in the mix if the Reds decide to explore the market, and Nick Lodolo has quietly made himself harder to ignore with the way he has thrown the ball lately. Brady Singer also stands out as the cleaner deadline fit because of his contract situation, while the return of Hunter Greene has already tightened the rotation picture and pushed other arms into different roles. For Cincinnati, the real question is not whether it has pitching to talk about, but which arm it would be willing to move if the right deal comes along. [Read more 🡒]