The Cincinnati Reds put the Chicago Cubs in a bind Friday night with a shutout to open the series, and they’re back at it Saturday with a chance to take the set. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET, with Nick Lodolo lined up against Javier Assad in a National League Central matchup that already tilted Cincinnati’s way once.
The lineups bring a few familiar names to the top of the card. The Cubs are starting Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, followed by Seiya Suzuki in right, Alex Bregman at third, Carson Kelly at designated hitter, Michael Busch at first, Nico Hoerner at second, Ian Happ in left, Dansby Swanson at shortstop and Miguel Amaya behind the plate. Assad gets the ball for Chicago.
Cincinnati counters with Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, Sal Stewart at third, JJ Bleday in left, Spencer Steer in right, Nathaniel Lowe at first, Eugenio Suarez at DH, Jose Trevino at catcher, Edwin Arroyo at second and TJ Friedl in center. Lodolo is the starter for the Reds.
Lodolo’s season has been a roller coaster, but the finish line has looked a lot better lately. He missed the first seven weeks while on the injured list, then stumbled badly after returning.
Through his first eight starts, his ERA sat at 6.12, and it never dipped below 5.20 after any of those outings. Over his last three starts, though, he’s thrown 15.0 innings, allowed just one run, given up nine hits and struck out 14.
The matchup numbers show a split profile that matters here. Left-handed hitters have done the most damage against Lodolo, posting a high average and getting on base at a strong clip, even if the power hasn’t really followed. Right-handed hitters have also had success, with a solid average, a healthy walk rate and enough pop to matter when they do connect.
Lodolo’s pitch mix is built around four offerings in almost equal measure. He’s throwing the four-seam fastball at 25%, the two-seam fastball at 26%, the slider at 25% and the changeup at 24%.
Assad’s path has been different. In 2025, an oblique strain in spring training kept him out of the majors until August.
This year he’s stayed healthy, but he also spent three weeks back in Triple-A after being optioned in May. He’s split time between the bullpen and the rotation for the Cubs, and his last outing was a strong one: 4.2 shutout innings against the Cardinals.
His splits are stark. Right-handed hitters have done very little against Assad, with a low average, minimal walks and almost no power. Left-handed hitters have managed a so-so average, but they’ve also been able to do real damage when they’ve made contact, producing plenty of power against him.
Assad leans heavily on the two-seam fastball, which he’s throwing 39% of the time. He’s also using the four-seam fastball at 20%, the cutter at 14%, the slider at 13%, the curve at 7% and the changeup at 7%.
Elsewhere around the organization, Burns will not pitch in the All-Star game after his groin muscle tightened up while covering the plate in his last outing. He and the team decided it was best for him to skip the game, and he has been replaced on the roster.
The 2026 MLB Draft is also underway today and tomorrow, with 20 rounds and 21 picks for the Reds. Cincinnati used its first-round selection on shortstop Justin Lebron out of the University of Alabama.
In the division picture, Milwaukee leads at 59-34, with Chicago at 52-42, St. Louis at 49-44, Pittsburgh at 47-47 and Cincinnati at 43-50. Fangraphs gives the Reds a 2.3% playoff chance.
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