The Reds have a chance to do something they haven’t always done well: lock in value before the price tag climbs.
That’s the bigger lesson behind Andrew Abbott’s uneven 2026 season. Cincinnati has often lagged behind other small-market clubs when it comes to handing out early extensions, and when it has acted, the timing hasn’t always maximized the return.
Hunter Greene is one example, with his injury history already flashing warning signs before the Reds committed. Chase Burns is another case where the deal still looks like a bargain at seven years and $105 million, but waiting until he had already proven himself in the majors meant paying more than they needed to.
Abbott gives the Reds a different kind of opening.
Heading into 2026, there was real buzz around the 2021 second-round pick. His 2025 season had him looking like a rising ace, built on elite command and a knack for soft contact.
He walked only 6.3% of batters, struck out 21.8%, and paired that with a 93rd percentile hard-hit rate of 33.7% and an 84th percentile average exit velocity of 87.8 miles per hour. The result was a 2.87 ERA, even if FIP at 3.66 and xERA at 3.55 suggested something a little less shiny underneath.
Then came 2026, and it wasn’t nearly as clean. Abbott’s walk rate and strikeout rate both slipped, hitters squared him up more often, and the home run issue became a real problem. He finished with a 4.61 ERA across 32 starts and 166 innings, allowing 1.41 HR/9.
Still, the year wasn’t a total write-off.
Abbott’s season had a clear split to it. He was excellent on Opening Day, then stumbled through April with a 5.97 ERA over the rest of the month.
From May 1 through July 31, though, he settled in and looked much more like the pitcher Cincinnati had seen before, posting a 2.95 ERA over 82⅓ innings and 15 starts. He faded late, but for a long stretch he was back in form.
The home run numbers deserve a closer look too, especially with Great American Ball Park in the picture. Abbott gave up just nine homers and a .369 slugging percentage at home, compared with 17 homers and a .484 SLG on the road.
There’s also the quality-start angle. Abbott had 11 in 2025 and actually improved to 12 in 2026.
That matters because it suggests he was often at least serviceable; when things went wrong, they really went wrong. That kind of volatility points more toward an aberration than a permanent collapse.
Now the Reds are staring at the kind of window they should want to exploit. Abbott is entering his first year of arbitration, and Cincinnati has the chance to buy into the down year before a rebound pushes the cost up.
If they act now, they could secure him at a below-market rate through the rest of his team control and into a couple of free-agent seasons. Wait until he bounces back, and the savings disappear.
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