After a night that went to extra innings, the Reds head into Thursday’s rubber match in Atlanta with a chance to leave Truist Park on a better note. Cincinnati is 73-85, while the Braves come in at 93-65, and first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM EDT.
The pitching matchup gives this one plenty of shape. Cincinnati sends Brady Singer to the mound, and the season line tells the story: 154.0 innings, a 5.67 ERA, and a 1.57 WHIP.
Atlanta counters with Tyler Mahle, who has turned his year around in a big way. He enters at 144.0 innings with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
Singer’s 2026 has been a rough ride almost from start to finish. He’s allowed 31 home runs, the most of his career, and his strikeout rate has fallen well below both last season’s mark and his usual standard.
September has been especially brutal. Over 12.1 innings this month, he’s been tagged for 21 earned runs, good for a 15.32 ERA, while also issuing 15 walks, surrendering five homers, and striking out just eight.
The one steady thing has been the workload. This is his fourth straight season with 30 or more starts, and that durability mattered for a Reds staff that had to navigate other pitching injuries along the way.
Mahle, meanwhile, has taken a completely different path after a shaky start with San Francisco. He opened the season with the Giants and struggled to a 5.13 ERA across 94.2 innings, giving up 14 homers and walking 37 batters.
Since landing in Atlanta, though, he has been a different pitcher. In eight starts with the Braves, he is 4-1 with a 1.28 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 49.1 innings.
September has been even sharper: a 0.95 ERA in 19.0 innings, with 12 strikeouts and only two walks.
The matchup numbers add another layer. Singer has been much more vulnerable to left-handed hitters, who are batting .312 against him with a .381 on-base percentage and a .528 slugging percentage.
Right-handers have hit .249 off him. Mahle has handled lefties well, holding them to a .209 average and a .362 slugging percentage, while right-handers are hitting .292 against him.
Singer’s pitch mix is led by his 2-seam fastball at 50.5%, followed by his slider at 27.3% and sweeper at 13.4%. Mahle leans on his 4-seam fastball 48.4% of the time and pairs it with a splitter at 29.4% and a cutter at 15.3%.
There’s also a fresh layer of noise around Cincinnati off the field. Fans have been pushing for changes at the top of the Reds organization, and an article in The Athletic this morning only added to that pressure, pointing to ownership and the front office casting blame at one another.
In the division picture, Milwaukee sits first at 99-59, followed by Chicago at 87-71, Pittsburgh at 80-78, St. Louis at 77-81, and Cincinnati at 73-85.
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