Kiley McDaniel’s updated ESPN farm system rankings put the Cincinnati Reds at No. 21, a number that still leaves plenty of room for concern even if it looks better than some of the harsher recent evaluations.
That slide reflects how much has changed in the past year. A year ago, the Reds could point to Chase Burns, Sal Stewart, Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, and Chase Petty as prospects. They can’t do that now, because all of them have spent too much time in Major League Baseball to remain Rookie of the Year eligible for next season.
The bigger problem, though, is that the holdovers haven’t done enough to keep the system afloat. Several of the remaining prospects have stalled out or gone backward, while the ones who have made progress have mostly done it at the lowest levels of the minors, where it’s harder to make a meaningful impact on the overall rankings. McDaniel’s most recent Top 100 list included just one Reds prospect: catcher Alfredo Duno, who checked in at No. 16 overall.
Duno is one of the few bright spots in the organization right now. He came off the injured list on Tuesday night after missing nearly a month and went 3-for-4 with two doubles for Double-A Chattanooga.
McDaniel’s assessment of the system pointed to the same split. As he put it: “Hector Rodriguez is in the big leagues, but many of the best players in the system are at the lower levels.”
That’s the heart of the debate over where Cincinnati really stands. Hector Rodriguez is in the big leagues, Duno is in Double-A, and center fielder Carlos Jorge is in Triple-A.
Beyond that, the upper minors get thin in a hurry. None of the other players in the top 10 of RedsMinorLeagues.com’s rankings are in Double-A or Triple-A.
The next group doesn’t do much to brighten the picture. Jose Franco was injured a month ago and hasn’t pitched since.
Cam Collier, a first baseman, has posted a .289 on-base percentage and a .370 slugging percentage. Leo Balcazar, a shortstop/third baseman, has spent a few weeks in Triple-A and owns a .684 OPS this season between Chattanooga and Louisville.
Pitching depth is even harder to find. There is only one starting pitcher in the top 10, and he has thrown fewer than 40 innings in his career while projecting as a middle-to-back-end rotation arm. The other five pitchers in the top 25 all come with major questions about whether they can stay in the rotation.
If you’re focused strictly on upside, there is still something to work with. Recent draft picks Justin Lebron, Steele Hall, and Tyson Lewis all have tools that can stand with just about anyone. Duno remains one of the better prospects in baseball because of both his tools and his production, and unlike most of the others, he is close to the majors.
Still, the depth that matters most is lacking where it counts. The lower levels have some real talent, but Double-A and Triple-A are thin. And if you value the upper levels more heavily - which is probably the right way to look at it, given how often lower-level prospects flame out - then the Reds’ farm system is hard to feel great about right now.
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Reds Front Office Faces New Heat After Brutal Trade Deadline Review
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Murrays criticism went beyond one bad negotiation or one missed deal, instead framing the deadline as a sign the Reds may need to reevaluate how they operate. His comments suggested the organization has more to learn from what happened, and he went so far as to hint that the fallout could eventually lead to changes in the front office. [Read more 🡒]