The Reds have a clear need, and Teoscar Hernández checks a lot of boxes.
Cincinnati finished dead-last in wRC+ this season at 91, and the club also managed only a .717 OPS against left-handed pitching. A bat like Hernández would help address both problems. The Dodgers are talking about moving the veteran outfielder as they look to get younger and open a lane for top prospect Josue De Paula, and with Andy Pages in center field and Kyle Tucker in right, dealing Hernández this winter makes sense for Los Angeles.
Hernández is 34 and entering the final guaranteed year of his deal, which carries a $14.5 million base salary and $8 million deferred. That setup suggests he should not require a huge prospect return, something that ought to appeal to Cincinnati given the current state of its farm system.
Still, the Reds have reason to be wary before diving into another trade with the Dodgers.
The most obvious cautionary tale is the Gavin Lux deal, which has not worked out well for Cincinnati. Lux lasted only one season with the Reds, put up 0.5 fWAR, struggled defensively, and hit just a bit above league average with a 105 wRC+.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, got a piece that now looks far more valuable. Mike Sirota has developed into a universal top-20 prospect in the Dodgers’ system, and he put up a ridiculous .461 on-base percentage in the high minors this year. He would look awfully good next to Alfredo Duno at the top of the Reds’ prospect list.
There’s also the seven-player trade from the 2018-19 offseason centered on Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. At the time, it looked like a strong Cincinnati win.
The Reds landed Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Matt Kemp, and Kyle Farmer for Bailey and two prospects. Puig was 27 and coming off an .820 OPS, Wood had been an All-Star in 2017, Kemp had been an All-Star in 2018, and Farmer came with five years of team control.
But the Dodgers ended up getting the better of that one, too. Bailey never pitched for Los Angeles and was traded before the 2019 season started, while Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs developed into top-100 prospects and later became key pieces in major franchise-changing deals.
Gray was included in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade, and Downs helped bring Mookie Betts to Los Angeles. Puig, Wood and Kemp each lasted one year or less in Cincinnati, while Farmer, the throw-in, stayed four years and produced 2.9 bWAR.
The lesson is simple enough: if you want to compete, you can’t be afraid to make a move. Hernández would clearly deepen the Reds’ lineup. But after the way recent Dodgers trades have gone, Nick Krall and the Cincinnati front office probably should not rush if Andrew Friedman and Los Angeles seem especially eager to get something done.
In Other News...
Reds Suddenly Face A Bullpen Reset With Big Money Decisions Ahead
The Reds spent the first week of the offseason making a clear financial statement, declining the 2027 contract options for Emilio Pagan, Eugenio Suarez and Pierce Johnson. It is the kind of move that instantly reshapes the pitching picture and trims future commitments, even if it leaves a few familiar names suddenly on the open market.
Pagans situation is the one that stands out most, since he has handled closing duties for Cincinnati over the past two seasons and is now positioned to test free agency after turning down his $10 million option. Suarez and Johnson are also free agents after the club passed on their mutual options, with Johnsons exit including a $1 million buyout, and the Reds now have a bullpen reset to manage while bigger money decisions loom ahead. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Just Created Flexibility That Could Reopen A Familiar Question
The Reds spent the early part of the offseason clearing some immediate payroll and roster space, and the latest moves only sharpen that picture. Cincinnati declined the mutual contract options on right-hander Pierce Johnson and infielder Eugenio Suarez, while Emilio Pagan announced he will decline his $10 million option, leaving the club with a lighter 40-man roster and a little more financial breathing room heading toward 2027.
For a team that has spent plenty of time balancing present needs against future flexibility, that kind of maneuvering matters. It also reopens a familiar question about how aggressively the Reds want to pursue help in the infield and on the mound, even as two recognizable names now head into free agency and the front office keeps its options open. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Could Have A Cheaper Rotation Answer This Winter
The Reds were linked to Nick Martinez last winter before choosing to add Eugenio Surez instead, and the right-handers name is back in the conversation as another offseason arrives. Martinez is expected to hit free agency again after his run with the Rays, but the market projection around him suggests Cincinnati would be looking at a pricier rotation piece than it may want to chase this time around.
That is why Aaron Civale has surfaced as a more realistic fit for the Reds if they want to add a starter without pushing too far into the upper tier of the market. Civales recent performance and free-agent status make him an appealing alternative on paper, especially for a club that has shown interest in shoring up the rotation while keeping its spending flexible. [Read more 🡒]