The Cincinnati Reds just locked up Chase Burns with a big extension, and that naturally set off the next round of wishcasting: who should be next?
A lot of fans have landed on Sal Stewart, with some even dragging Joey Votto into the conversation. That’s where the comparison starts to wobble.
Stewart has been one of the few Reds hitters worth watching this season, and there’s no denying he’s put together a solid rookie year. But he is not, at least not yet, the kind of player who belongs in the same breath as Votto.
Stewart’s wRC+ sits at 116. That’s a good number, especially on a Reds team that has not hit much at all.
But in the 2020s, among Reds hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, that mark puts him in a group that includes TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Spencer Steer, Brandon Drury, Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto, Jonathan India, and Jesse Winker. JJ Bleday will be there in 16 more PAs, probably.
Only two players on that list - Votto and De La Cruz - were truly great. The rest were either solid for a stretch or riding a fluky season.
Stewart’s 116 wRC+ also doesn’t stand out the way some fans might think when you zoom out beyond Cincinnati. Among qualified first basemen this season, it ranks 17th according to Fangraphs. In other words, 16 teams have a first baseman hitting better than the Reds’ first baseman of the future.
That gap matters, especially when people start reaching for big-name comps. The Votto comparison is the one that keeps popping up, but it’s the wrong one.
If you want more realistic names, Jay Bruce and Sean Casey fit better. Those were good players.
They were not great.
The numbers tell the same story in another way. Stewart is currently on pace for 2.9 fWAR or 2.8 bWAR, depending on which version you prefer.
Burns, by comparison, already has 2.9 fWAR and 4.2 bWAR. For hitters and pitchers, respectively, fWAR for hitters and bWAR for pitchers is how most people I know roll, for the record.
The gap looks even wider when you stack Stewart against other Reds stars at the same stage. Elly De La Cruz had 6.5 fWAR at the same age. And in Joey Votto’s 2008 rookie season, he posted 3.6 fWAR, then followed that with more than that - usually a lot more - every year until 2018, aside from the injury-marred 2014 season.
None of that is meant to tear Stewart down. He’s young, he’s having a very respectable debut, and there’s nothing wrong with thinking he can be part of the Reds’ future.
But he is not Burns, he is not De La Cruz, and he is not Votto. He’s not a player you empty the bank account for.
Right now, he looks like a useful piece, not a franchise anchor.
And that’s fine. Championship teams usually need a couple of great players and a whole lot of solid ones around them.
Stewart fits the second category. The Reds just need to stop pretending otherwise.
In Other News...
Joey Votto Reaches A Proud New Milestone For Reds Fans
Joey Vottos post-playing career is already taking him into a familiar kind of spotlight. The former Reds star has been making the rounds on MLB Networks MLB Now, and NBC Sports confirmed earlier this year that he would be part of its coverage for select Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts and the MLB playoffs as a pregame analyst.
Now Votto is set for his NBC Sunday Night Baseball debut on July 26, when the Philadelphia Phillies meet the New York Yankees. Hell be part of a broader studio group that includes Clayton Kershaw and Anthony Rizzo, another sign that Vottos next act is starting to come into focus, even as Reds fans continue to see his fingerprints around Cincinnati through gestures like the clock he donated to Great American Ball Park. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Veterans Suddenly Look Like Deadline Trade Bait Again
The Reds are once again in that familiar midsummer spot where the roster starts to look a little more like a warehouse of movable parts than a finished contender. With the August 3 deadline approaching, the front office is reportedly weighing expiring contracts and trying to decide which veterans fit the long view and which ones fit the trade market, a list that includes Eugenio Surez, Brady Singer, Tyler Stephenson, Brock Burke, Nathaniel Lowe, Caleb Ferguson and Pierce Johnson.
Surez, Lowe and the left-handed relievers give Cincinnati a few different ways to shop the same basic idea: present value now, future flexibility later. Even with some uneven production in the mix, there is enough name recognition and enough team need around the league to make these players worth watching, and the real question is how aggressive the Reds want to be if the right offers start coming in before the deadline. [Read more 🡒]
Former Mariner Eugenio Surez Returns With Trade Deadline Tension Hanging Over Him
Eugenio Surez has spent enough time in the middle of deadline chatter to know how these late-July weeks can feel, and the Reds third baseman is back in the conversation again after a strong stretch at the plate. He missed a month earlier this season with an oblique strain, but since getting back in stride he has looked more like the veteran power bat Cincinnati hoped to have, helping fuel the kind of speculation that comes with a player on an expiring deal.
Surez said he understands the possibility of another move, even if his attention stays on the day-to-day grind of playing baseball. The trade talk comes as Cincinnati looks increasingly likely to be in sell mode ahead of the Aug. 3 deadline, and it lands against a personal backdrop too, after Surez shared a moment with teammate Ezequiel Tovar as both checked on family in Venezuela following recent earthquakes. [Read more 🡒]