After taking a series in Pittsburgh, the Cincinnati Reds head into Milwaukee to open a four-game set against a Brewers club that still sits atop the division, even after dropping a home series to the Cubs over the weekend.
First pitch is set for 7:40 PM EDT, and this one brings a left-on-left matchup on the mound: Nick Lodolo for Cincinnati against Robert Gasser for Milwaukee.
Lodolo gets the ball looking to build on what he flashed last Tuesday against these same Brewers at Great American Ball Park. That outing was sharp - just two hits, no runs and six strikeouts - before it ended after four innings when he was hit on the pitching hand by a ball up the middle.
The Reds left-hander has been vulnerable to the long ball this season, giving up eight homers in 46.2 innings, but he’s been a little sturdier on the road. Of his eight home runs allowed, only three have come away from GABP.
The challenge tonight is the middle of Milwaukee’s order, where Andrew Vaughn has been punishing left-handed pitching with a 1.284 OPS against southpaws.
Gasser, meanwhile, is still working his way back after Tommy John surgery in 2024. The 27-year-old has made six starts since rejoining the Brewers roster in mid-May, and the results have come in waves. Lately, though, the trend has been encouraging: over his last two starts and 11.2 innings, he has allowed two runs on six hits with 12 strikeouts and no home runs.
The Brewers lefty has generally shown the kind of split you’d expect from a southpaw, with right-handers doing more damage than lefties over his career. But this season, the numbers have looked a little different in a small sample, with left-handed hitters producing better against him than right-handed hitters. That won’t be much of a factor tonight, though, because Terry Francona has loaded the Reds lineup with right-handed bats.
There’s also some good news on the Cincinnati injury front. According to Fox19 contributor Charlie Goldsmith, Francona said in his pre-game meeting with the media that Emilio Pagan will be activated tomorrow, and Hunter Greene is with the team in Milwaukee this week. Goldsmith also reported Francona’s update on Eugenio Suárez’s hand, with the manager saying Suárez “dodged a bullet” and that he wanted to play today.
Milwaukee enters the game at 50-31 and owns a massive 97.0% playoff odds mark from Fangraphs, while Cincinnati sits at 39-43 and 11.5 games back. The Reds are still chasing ground, and this road trip now continues with a tough test against the first-place club in the division.
In Other News...
The Reds Draft Regret That Keeps Looking More Brutal
The 2022 draft still looks like a pivot point for Cincinnati, especially when you line up the Reds early picks against how the board turned out. The club came away with Cam Collier, Sal Stewart and Logan Tanner, a group that at the time represented a mix of upside and organizational need, but the conversation around that class has only gotten louder as the years have passed.
Logan Tanners path has been the hardest to read, with his development stalling before he could get beyond High-A and the organization eventually shifting him from catcher to pitcher. He has yet to make that first mound appearance after landing on the 60-day injured list in March, while the arm the Reds let go elsewhere has surged into one of the most compelling starting pitchers in the league and a legitimate Cy Young threat. [Read more 🡒]
Emilio Pagan Is Suddenly At Center Of The Reds Bullpen Tension
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For a group already juggling late-inning roles and fresh arms, Pagans progress matters even more because the Reds have had to absorb other hits around the roster as well, from Eugenio Suarez leaving after being hit by a pitch to Blake Dunn going on the injured list and KeBryan Hayes continuing his rehab work. The next question is how soon the club decides it has seen enough from Pagan, and what move follows when the bullpen finally gets one more experienced option back in the door. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Let Another Winnable Game Slip As Brewers Pressure Builds
The Reds had another chance to steady themselves Sunday in Pittsburgh, but the series finale slipped away early and never really came back. Brady Singer took the ball after showing some recent promise, yet the second inning turned into another reminder of the volatility that has followed him at times this season, and Cincinnati was left chasing a 9-4 loss at PNC Park.
Tyler Callihans three-run homer put the Pirates in control, and the Reds could not answer enough to change the feel of the afternoon. A rain delay only added to the frustration, as Pittsburgh came back out and kept widening the gap, leaving Cincinnati at 39-43 and still searching for a way to stop these winnable games from getting away. [Read more 🡒]