The Reds and Padres are right back at it this afternoon at Great American Ball Park, with the series on the line after Cincinnati’s comeback win on Tuesday night evened things up. First pitch is set for 12:40pm ET, and both clubs are sending out lineups that look built to pressure the opposing starter early.
For San Diego, the spotlight lands on Ethan Salas, who is making his big league debut. He’s in the lineup at catcher, one of the bigger prospect storylines in baseball and a name worth filing away for later. The Padres are also rolling out Fernando Tatis Jr. at second, Samad Taylor in left, Jackson Merrill in center, Ty France at first, Xander Bogaerts at short, Austin Hays in right, Luis Campusano at DH, and Jake Cronenworth at third.
Cincinnati counters with Hector Rodriguez in right, Elly De La Cruz at DH, Sal Stewart at first, JJ Bleday in left, Tyler Stephenson behind the plate, Dane Myers in center, Juan Brito at second, Matt McLain at short, and Edwin Arroyo at third.
The pitching matchup is a pair of right-now arms who have both had their share of trouble this season. San Diego is going with Casey Mize, while Cincinnati hands the ball to Brandon Williamson.
Williamson hasn’t pitched for the Reds since April, spending all of May, June, and July sidelined with “shoulder fatigue” before starting a rehab assignment on August 1st. The rehab results weren’t pretty: 11 runs allowed in 16.2 innings, along with 19 hits, a hit batter, 12 walks, and 14 strikeouts. His season line across 28.0 innings shows a 6.11 ERA and 1.64 WHIP with 20 walks and 19 strikeouts.
The left-hander has been vulnerable in a very specific way this year. Left-handed hitters have absolutely hit him hard, producing a .326 average and .651 slugging percentage against him.
Right-handers have drawn plenty of walks and made contact, but the damage has been more muted overall. Williamson’s pitch mix has featured a 4-seam fastball, 2-seam fastball, cutter, curve, slider, and change, with the cutter used most often.
Mize’s path to San Diego has been rocky too. He came over from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline after putting together a 2.70 ERA in 16 American League starts, but the move hasn’t gone smoothly.
Through five starts with the Padres, his ERA has climbed to 6.26, and his walk rate has gone from solid to ugly while he’s struck out just 11 batters in 23.0 innings. Eight runs in 3.1 innings in his Padres debut did a lot of the damage, and he has only four strikeouts across his last three starts combined.
Even so, the handedness splits tell an interesting story. Right-handed hitters have done the most damage against Mize this season, hitting .259 with a .483 slugging percentage.
Left-handers have had a tougher time, batting .209 with a .306 slugging mark. His arsenal has leaned on a 4-seam fastball, slider, split, 2-seam fastball, and curve.
There isn’t much else to note on the Reds’ side heading into the game, but the debut of Salas gives the Padres an extra layer of intrigue in a series finale that already has plenty riding on it. Cincinnati entered the day at 66-73 and 20 games back, with playoff odds listed at 0.0%, while Milwaukee and Chicago sit atop the division.
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Britos week stood out even more when he launched his first major league home run and added a stolen base in the same series, the kind of all-around flash that can make a late-season look matter more than the calendar suggests. For a club thinking ahead as much as it is trying to finish strong, these are the auditions worth monitoring, especially with Brito potentially in the conversation for the offseason roster and Williamson trying to show he can still be part of the pitching picture. [Read more 🡒]